Climate change, growing consumption and problems in water management make Central Asia increasingly vulnerable. Experts warn that without urgent revision of water policy, the region’s capitals may face a crisis comparable in economic and demographic parameters to the situation in Iran.
In Central Asia, per capita water availability has declined from 8,400 to 2,500 cubic meters per year over the past 40 years, making water scarcity one of the main threats to the region’s economic development, warn experts at the New Lines Institute, an international think tank.
In a report published in February 2026, New Lines Institute warned: “water scarcity is turning into one of the key threats to Central Asia’s economic development and stability.”
Here are just a few figures showing the growing threat. About 80% of the region’s water resources are used for agriculture, but water losses due to outdated irrigation systems amount to about 40%. The flow of the Amu Darya, one of the most important water arteries in the region, may decrease by 8-20% by 2030. The risk of climate migration over the next quarter of a century is 5 million people.
