Analysts agree that the disruption of logistics chains in the Persian Gulf may provoke a large-scale famine, exceeding the consequences of the crisis of 2022. This is reported by the Financial Times.
Nitrogen component shortages and plant shutdowns
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main artery for the industry, with 1/3 of the world’s urea exports and 45% of sulfur shipments passing through it. The escalating conflict has already led to the complete shutdown of some major urea production facilities, a key nitrogen fertilizer needed to maintain yields of key crops. For example, the blockage of this route has already led to the closure of the QAFCO plant in Qatar, which was producing 5.6 million tons of product annually. At the same time, severe natural gas shortages have forced companies in South Asia to drastically reduce their production capacity.
In the Persian Gulf area, about 1.1 million tons of finished products and raw materials are now blocked from reaching the international market. This volume is half of the standard export flow, creating a market deficit that cannot be quickly filled.
Global hunger growth projections
Analysts at the UN and the Fertilizer Institute stress that even a short-term price hike will leave long-term scars on the world’s food systems. Rising crop costs will inevitably hit the most vulnerable import-dependent regions of Africa and South Asia. A sharp increase in the number of hungry people in 2026 is considered inevitable due to the high sensitivity of the agricultural market to any logistical disruptions.
