The USD/MDL exchange rate rose to 16.9200 on February 17, 2026, up 0.36% from the previous session.
The data reflect the current trend of strengthening of the national currency of Moldova. However, the annual rate of appreciation of the non-convertible currency even against the background of a weakening dollar raises questions.
Experts attribute the growth in the value of the national currency to the policy of the National Bank and economic factors, noting that such dynamics makes imports cheaper. But it can create pressure on exporters and foreign exchange reserves.
Reasons for the strengthening of the leu
The significant annual appreciation in early 2026 was the result of a combination of several key factors related to both the inflow of currency into the country and the regulator’s tight monetary policy.
In 2025, the volume of remittances from abroad in favor of individuals reached a historic high of $1.66 billion. High supply of currency from the diaspora has traditionally supported the leu exchange rate, creating an oversupply in the domestic market.
Receipts from international partners also had a significant impact. The country’s external debt increased by almost $0.5 bln in 2025, which ensured additional inflow of foreign currency into the economy. Moldova also started to receive tranches under the new Growth Plan from the EU.
The National Bank’s (NBM) policy remains tight against the background of easing monetary policy in the world. The regulator keeps the prime rate at 5% per annum. Besides, the NBM actively uses mandatory reserve instruments for commercial banks, which limits the mass of cash lei in circulation and stimulates its appreciation.
Demand for currency is falling
The liquidity of banks, despite the recent reduction of mandatory reserves, is not yet increasing circulation. According to the NBM, the excess liquidity of the banking system, i.e. the real amount of cash held by the co-banks in excess of the required reserves, increased from 5.3 billion MDL in Q3 2025 to 6.2 billion in Q4 2025.
At the same time, kombank liquidity is lower than it was a year earlier (8.4 billion MDL). And it is projected to be “destined” to be frozen in government securities (GS).
Experts also observe a decrease in demand for currency from importers, noting periods of reduced activity of economic entities buying imported goods, which reduces the pressure on the leu.
In addition, joining SEPA in October 2025 has made cross-border transfers easier and cheaper, which also indirectly contributes to the stability of the national currency.
Despite the appreciation, risks remain in the economy: the trade deficit widened by 30% in 2025 to record highs, putting long-term pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
