Despite the fact that by the end of January there was a slight recovery in the market after a period of relative stability, the turnover of foreign currency in cash decreased significantly compared to the end of last year. Households sold the equivalent of €279 million and bought €71 million (December 2025 – €365 million and €92 million respectively).
Both the euro and the dollar declined, the same as last year. “The difference in the situation is that now there was a decrease not only compared to the previous month, but also compared to January 2025. whereas a year ago (compared to January 2024) there was an increase,” says Vladimir Golovatyuk.
Overall decrease in activity
With its latest decision, the NBM kept the prime rate at 5%, aiming to keep inflation within the target corridor and maintain the stability of the national currency in the context of seasonal changes in demand. According to forecasts, the currency market is expected to experience a period of relative stability with moderate pressure on the leu.
The NBM expects the dollar to depreciate against the leu less intensively in 2026 than in the previous year. The average annual exchange rate is estimated by the Ministry of Finance to remain stable, providing predictability for businesses. Current market quotations for February 2026 are around MDL 17.06 per dollar.
Euro (EUR/MDL): Forecasts point to a possible rise of the euro above MDL 20. This is due to the expected strengthening of the euro on global markets (EUR/USD forecast to 1.22-1.25 by the end of the year) and the ECB’s tight monetary policy.
Short-term spikes in demand for foreign currency are not excluded, especially related to the demand of importers, but the beginning of the year demonstrates a general decrease in activity on the foreign exchange market.
Net demand “keeps pace”
According to the latest data, net demand for foreign currency from economic agents in January traditionally remains at a high level, but its coverage by net supply from individuals may fluctuate.
The dynamics of supply and demand in 2025 shows that net demand from companies increased by 13% (to €3.75 billion) and supply from individuals by 12.7% (to €3.16 billion).
The degree of coverage, at the end of 2025 is almost identical to the previous year’s figure (84.6%) – the population covered the companies’ demand by 84.4%.
January trends have not changed. Net supply of currency from individuals remains at a high level, as both net supply and net demand from companies are falling.
