This opinion was expressed by analysts, pointing out that reserves only briefly cover the deficit, not eliminating the structural problems of supply and demand. The current uncertainty due to the war in the Middle East outweighs the volume of supplies from storage.
The Wall Street Journal wrote that the IEA has proposed opening reserves and the volume could exceed 182 million barrels. IEA member countries reportedly have about 1.2 billion barrels in reserve stocks. Financial Times for its part says that the release of oil reserves by the G7 countries will not stabilize the world market, especially if the conflict is prolonged.
Prices will only return to their original levels in 2027
Taxes and inflation account for more than 65% of the final cost of fuel, so lower oil prices have little effect on the price at the gas station. In some cases, as Finam analysts point out, oil reserves are no longer saving the economy from a fuel crisis. High oil prices are expected to continue to put pressure on fuel costs in Europe and globally.
“We expect some short-term disruptions in oil flows and associated production suspensions, along with a continued risk premium, to keep Brent crude prices at $91/b in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26). Following the restoration of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect global oil production to continue to outpace consumption over the forecast period, resulting in global oil inventories increasing by an average of 1.9mn. Growing oil inventories will again put pressure on prices, and we expect Brent to fall to $70/b in Q4 2026 and $64/b in 2027,” they forecast.
Currencies react to oil
A new wave of rising oil prices has lifted the dollar. Over the past 24 hours, the price of Brent crude oil jumped to $100/bbl, against $86/bbl on Tuesday. This factor expectedly had a positive impact on the dollar’s behavior: DXY returned to 99.5 this morning. Against this backdrop, the euro is now testing the lows of the year at 1.154.
The British pound sterling is behaving a bit more calmly and GBP/USD is trading around 1.338 on Thursday. Japan is heavily dependent on oil purchases, so the USD/JPY pair is now close to its yearly highs around 159.3. Previously, this resistance boundary was already tested in January. The USD/CNY exchange rate is adding 0.15% today and USD/CNY is trading near 6.88.
The dollar index made a sharp reversal on Tuesday: from the level of 98.5 it rose to 99.5 by Thursday, i.e. it added 1%. The current DXY levels are the highest levels reached since the war with Iran began earlier this month.
Traders continue to keep a close eye on events in the Middle East, as it strongly influences the oil markets, and through them the currency markets. A day earlier, oil prices briefly declined amid reports that countries are preparing to release strategic reserves.
But the market did not react strongly to the IEA’s plans to release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves, although these volumes are the largest in history. As part of this plan, the US will release 172 mln barrels of oil starting next week.
Over the last 24 hours, oil prices have returned to the $100/bbl area, adding about 18% from the weekly lows. The reason for a new wave of price growth were reports of new attacks on ships in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the closure of oil terminals. Iraq stopped loading and transportation of oil due to Iranian attacks. This price spike is expected to spur inflation and raise borrowing costs around the world.
The inflationary spiral is beginning to unwind
If the war drags on and the Strait blockage persists, the world will adapt to this reality and establish new supply routes. It will be more expensive and inconvenient, but safer. But oil prices will remain at elevated levels for the longer term.
The full effect of the energy price hike has not yet been realized. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.24% on Wednesday, the highest level in about a month, and is now supporting the dollar.
Statistics released yesterday showed that the US annual inflation rate in February remained at January’s 2.4%, which is in line with expectations. Current levels are the lowest since May 2025. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.3%, slightly accelerating from 0.2% in January and in line with forecasts.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged at 2.5%, the same as in January, and near the lowest level since 2021.
These inflation figures look good, but they mean little right now. In the context of the events of early March, these data can be considered badly out of date. We see a spike in energy prices in March, so it is the March inflation report, which will be released in mid-April that will reflect the spike due to gasoline and logistics prices. The March inflation data is likely to cement the “Higher for Longer” scenario.
EU will take action
The EUR exchange rate has started to lose ground again over the past 24 hours amid a renewed rise in oil prices. This morning EUR/USD is trading around 1.155, near yearly lows, as risks persist that the conflict in the Middle East could drag on and eventually lead to higher inflation in the Eurozone.
A supporting factor for the euro is the monetary policy outlook from the ECB, which has now shifted towards a tighter stance. Market participants are increasingly putting into prices at least one interest rate hike of 25 p.p. this year, although this was not expected at the end of February.
If oil continues to trade around $100/bbl, the regulator may raise the prime rate several times this year, experts believe. On Tuesday, ECB head Christine Lagarde confirmed that the central bank is committed to taking all necessary measures to curb inflation, despite the current rise in energy prices.
In Moldova – “everything is calm”
A-95 and diesel prices continue to rise daily as the country is totally dependent on imports and world quotations, with domestic reserves left for a critically short period of time.
Fuel prices have a double impact on Moldova’s economy: directly through the basket of consumer prices and indirectly through the cost of production and logistics. The direct and indirect impact of the fuel crisis on inflation may become apparent soon.
A 10% increase in fuel prices may add about 2.4% to the overall consumer price index (0.5% – direct contribution, 1.9% – due to an increase in the cost of other goods and services). Although the current dynamics of energy prices decrease since the beginning of the year gives a certain time lag.
Despite the volatility, in February 2026, fuel prices in Moldova were 3.4% lower than a year earlier, which exerted disinflationary pressure on the economy. And in this situation, the National Bank of Moldova has time to “think” whether to leave the prime rate unchanged (the rate cut at the end of 2025 from 6% to 5% was aimed at supporting demand amid slowing inflation).
If world oil or imported gas prices rise above forecasts in Q2 and Q3 2026, the NBM may suspend policy easing or start raising rates to anchor inflation expectations. Moreover, the NBM closely monitors the leu exchange rate, and its weakening with a simultaneous increase in global oil prices may increase inflationary pressure, forcing the bank to take more stringent measures.
