Today, within the Economic Press Club meeting, the WB economists presented the updated report “Moldova economic update” (fall 2025). The main sources of optimism were: business activity on the back of lower interest rates, growth of agricultural production in the second half of the year and sustainability of disposable income, supported by the reduction of inflationary pressures.
However, “weak export performance, especially to Romania, coupled with sustained import growth will continue to weigh on net exports and limit the pace of economic recovery,” the bank’s economists warned.
Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the medium term, driven by an improved external environment, productivity growth, and reforms and investments related to the country’s European integration efforts. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027.
Inflation is projected to continue to decline as supply pressures ease. Average annual inflation is estimated at 7.8% in 2025 due to energy price pressures. It is expected to return to the target range by end-2026 on the back of lower import prices. It will be 5.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
The WB expects the NBM to maintain a flexible exchange rate regime, stabilizing the national currency if necessary, which will ensure the target range of inflation and prudent management of external debt. According to the bank’s experts, “as exports and foreign direct investments strengthen, external financing conditions are projected to improve and Moldova’s current account deficit is expected to decrease, although its level will remain high”.
