Perhaps, the situation with the total area of winter crops will be improved by information on rape sowing for the new crop, which may be close to or even exceed the last year’s figure (more than 100 thousand hectares). However, much will depend on the data on overwintering, which will appear in late April – early May.
In the spring of 2026, the main share of winter crops in Moldova entered in the condition assessed by experts between “satisfactory” and “good”. However, they believe that the results of wintering of winter crops can be definitely judged not earlier than the last decade of April.
According to the specialists of the National Center for Research and Seed Production of the Republic of Moldova (CNCPS), based on the observations of the previous seasons of the last five years, it is possible to predict at least two more waves of cold weather, which can change the situation in Moldovan crop production.
The first one is expected already next week – weather forecasts promise frosts and rain with snow. The second one has been observed for several years already in the beginning of the second decade of April.
Usually these are short-term, but noticeable frosts in the night and morning hours (however, they are more dangerous for perennial plantations and spring seedlings than for winter crops). At the same time, much will depend on the agro-technologies applied (or not) during spring field work.
At the moment, experts note only, on average, satisfactory condition of barley crops: the leaf apparatus was damaged by frosts, but the “growth point” was not massively affected, that is – the potential for recovery in the case of favorable weather and feeding is still high. Winter wheat crops look better, but not firmly “good”.
Condition of winter crops for harvest-2026 in Ukraine and the European Union
According to the European Commission’s Joint Research Center’s (JRC) Joint Agricultural Resources Monitoring System (MARS) first MARS bulletin for 2026, published in March, conditions for winter crops in Europe remained generally satisfactory. Heavy and prolonged frosts raised concerns about frost damage in some regions where snow cover was insufficient. Although heavy rains in western France, southern Europe and the western Mediterranean replenished soil moisture and water reserves, they also resulted in localized flooding.
European agricultural meteorologists are calling eastern Poland, the Baltic states and western Ukraine “regions of concern” for frost damage. Here, where temperatures can drop as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius in some places, there is a high probability of frost damage to crops; in some places, even snow cover has failed to provide protection.
In other parts of Europe, winter crops have shown good frost resistance. The lowest risk of frost damage was recorded in northeastern Germany, Denmark, Sweden, western Poland and central Ukraine.
In December, precipitation deficits were observed in much of Europe, including central Europe, western Balkans, Romania and central Ukraine. In January and February, northeastern Europe suffered from moisture deficits combined with low temperatures. Prolonged periods of heavy frost and thin snow cover led to localized frost damage in Finland, the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine, Oilworld wrote.
Specialized media in Ukraine, having interviewed local experts, agree that in most of the country by early spring the condition of winter crops is not very alarming, but it is too early to talk about successful overwintering. In the northwestern, northeastern, eastern and central regions of the country, where the climate is more continental and severe frosts were observed, the situation with the potential of winter crops is worse than in southern Ukraine.
Corrective factor of agrarian economy
For Moldova, Ukraine and most other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, an important negative factor in the run-up to the spring field campaign will be a dynamic rise in the price of oil products and mineral fertilizers.
Unfortunately, despite the positive price trend in the grain segment of the global market of agricultural products, Europe may repeat the situation of three or four years ago. Back then, due to the energy crisis and a sharp rise in fertilizer prices, farmers had to consciously reduce the level of agricultural technologies and, consequently, yields.
