Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo has threatened to cut off emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine if Kiev does not resume transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline by Monday. Hungary supported Slovakia’s position and also threatened to join the energy blockade.
Risk of a “domino effect”
If Ukraine faces a critical shortage because of this, it could lead to uncontrolled overflows or even cascading blackouts that would affect the Moldovan grid as well, as already happened during the January 2026 blackout.
Romania, Poland and Moldova remain key players in the system of technical flows and emergency assistance to support the Ukrainian grid. This interconnection is due to the full synchronization of the Ukrainian and Moldovan grids with the European continental ENTSO-E grid, which allows for both commercial imports and emergency technical support.
While Romania remains one of the largest electricity exporters in the region, Moldova plays the role of a transit hub. Due to the physical structure of the networks (Isaccea-Vulcanesti-MGRES line), flows from Romania to Ukraine often pass through Moldovan territory. And Poland provides the technical possibility to import through cross-border high-voltage interconnections. This is critical to maintain grid frequency in case of sudden fluctuations in consumption or infrastructure damage.
Emergency situations are possible
Ukraine receives the bulk of its imports from Hungary and Slovakia (about 62%), but Romania and Poland remain reserve pillars to ensure balance during peak hours. The suspension of electricity supplies from Slovakia does not pose a direct threat to Moldova, but significantly increases the risks of destabilization of the Ukraine-Moldova single power unit.
The technical capacity limit for imports from EU countries (including Poland and Romania) to Ukraine in January has been increased to 2.45 GW. The failure of Slovakia, one of the key suppliers, would sharply reduce this total reserve, making the system less resilient to accidents.
Accidents have been a constant occurrence since the beginning of the year. In January and February, there were cases of activation of protection systems and restoration of flows after technological accidents on cross-border lines.
Price growth
In case of shortages in the European segment of the network (ENTSO-E) due to political disputes, the cost of electricity on the spot markets (Day-Ahead Market), where Moldova often buys the missing volumes, will inevitably increase. Since Moldova and Ukraine operate in a single synchronized zone with the ENTSO-E European grid, any restrictions for Ukraine directly affect Moldova’s security.
Moldova continues to expand its cross-border infrastructure with Romania. For example, the Vulcanesti-Chisinau line), provided it is launched this year, will allow electricity to bypass Ukrainian and Slovak hubs.
