US dollar rises amid strikes on Iran
Head of currency research at Barclays Themistoklis Fiotakis noted that the aggravation of the situation strengthens the traditional factors of support for the U.S. currency. According to him, the rise in oil prices – about 0.5-1% strengthening of the dollar for every 10% increase in oil – and the general flight of investors from risk usually play in favor of the dollar.
Washington and Tel Aviv have launched a new, larger round of strikes. The Iranian leadership has reportedly suffered serious losses, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. President Donald Trump stated broad military objectives in a video message, signaling that the operation could last days or even weeks, investing. com.
The rise could be short-lived
HSBC Bank strategist David May also believes the dollar will initially benefit from rising geopolitical tensions. However, he recalled the events of June 2025, when the dollar appreciated sharply during the previous conflict with Iran, but then quickly lost ground.
Back then, investor sentiment was pressured by domestic political uncertainty in the US. This led to discussions about whether the dollar was losing its “safe haven” status in times of crisis.
In May’s view, the episode did not indicate a structural loss of the dollar’s protective role. He emphasized that geopolitical crises often cause contradictory reactions in currency markets.
Experts warn: the sustainability of a possible strengthening of the dollar will depend on the overall economic situation and investor sentiment in the coming weeks.
