These data were reported by the Ukrainian Finance Ministry. The August increase in the national debt is one of the most significant “jumps” in recent times. In the previous month, the amount of borrowings increased by $1.29bn.
As noted by the Economic Pravda newspaper, Ukraine’s external debt is now more than four times higher than the amount the government borrowed on the domestic market – from the NBU, banks and citizens who buy government bonds.
The total public debt of $192.71 billion at the end of August exceeded the country’s gross domestic product for 2024. Last year, Ukraine’s GDP amounted to $190.7bn, which is the value of all goods and services produced.
Thus, Ukraine is likely to have crossed the psychological threshold of the state debt exceeding 100% of the country’s GDP. Its servicing is already becoming a serious problem for the economy, especially in the conditions of war. “Ekonomicheskaya Pravda” reports that Ukraine is already spending more on state debt than on pensions and social services.
The EBRD recently lowered its forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy to 2.5% of GDP by the end of 2025. The previous forecast estimated the growth potential at 3.3% of GDP. In August, the National Bank of Ukraine estimated the growth prospects of the Ukrainian economy this year even lower – only by 2%.
At the same time, the EBRD report emphasizes that Ukraine’s economic prospects remain very uncertain and depend on the course of the war, energy security and further international support.
The EBRD also points out that Ukraine’s current account deficit widened by almost 50% in January-July, reflecting high imports of military and energy products and weak exports. External financing is expected to amount to about $40 bln, further increasing government debt and making it more difficult for the budget to service.
Meanwhile, inflation in the country remains high, driven by food prices, utilities and real wage growth. Although it has fallen from 15.9% in May to 13.2% in August 2025.
Against this background, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a budget deficit of 22% of GDP at the end of 2025.
