The new reality was the subject of discussions at the international conference “The future of governance: European financial integration and the strategic advantage of digitalization” held under the auspices of the ECB. The event was related to the accession processes of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union.
The war causes serious shocks in the global financial system, characterized by capital flight to safe assets, high market volatility and a sharp rise in inflation due to military spending. Economic sanctions are imposed, restricting payment systems (SWIFT) and freezing assets, disrupting supply chains and slowing global economic growth. These challenges are being overcome, countries are adapting by introducing alternatives. But the global financial system is likely to be slowly reborn, experts believe.
Regional interests, like regional conflicts, will lead to regional means of payment. We can already see the “unionization” of payments taking place. For example, Iran charges transit payments through the Strait of Hormuz in this currency. Everything suggests that the matter is heading towards fragmentation of the global financial system and acceleration of the search for new, independent of the dollar, methods of payments. Up to and including shadow ones.
Experts more and more often hopefully prophesize the role of the dollar as a safe haven for the world capital, referring to the accumulated potential and investment opportunities. However, even the Moldovan financial system, which is in the initial stage of approaching the global one, has chosen a regional perspective as the accounting currency, focusing on economic ties and convenience of cross-border payments.
Transition to “economic nationalism” and regionalization
Experts prophesize an unenviable future for international payment systems. The previously unified global payments infrastructure is disintegrating into competing regional blocs.
Fragmentation and “permission risk” are replacing unconditional payments. In the foreign exchange (FX) markets in 2026, “permission risk” – the likelihood of a payment being blocked or delayed due to sanctions – has become a key factor. This has become more important than the growth rate of a country’s economy.
The slowdown in cross-border transactions is intensifying. Due to enhanced checks (compliance), the average settlement time for correspondent accounts in conflict zones has increased from 1-2 to 4-7 business days.
The need to circumvent blockages is accelerating the introduction of government-issued digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets that allow for direct settlement, bypassing traditional correspondent banks.
Alternatives to SWIFT are emerging – BRICS countries and regions of Africa and the Middle East are introducing their own “SWIFT-like” mechanisms to reduce dependence on Western infrastructure, and the role of national systems (Russia’s SPFS, China’s CIPS) is increasing.
Anca Dragu, head of the NBM, participated in the conference, speaking about the successes of Moldova’s integration policy and regional projects, including initiatives to connect to the European market infrastructure and the launch of modern trade platforms aimed at supporting investment attraction.
“By aligning regulations with European standards, modernizing the payment infrastructure, developing the capital market and following a solid, internationally recognized reform path, the National Bank of Moldova is building a solid, sustainable financial system ready for integration into the European Union,” said Ms. Anca Dragu.
The financial future of the EU
European leaders link the future of financial governance to the role of technology in building economic resilience. The transformation of financial markets will depend on the degree of integration of digital technologies into the system of public and corporate governance. And also – the transition of central banks from political goals to national projects of “social cohesion through digitalization”.
Europeans see the introduction of the digital euro, tokenization, AI, and regulatory sandboxes as topics for discussion. The debate has been going on for a long time: the preparation for the issue and legal aspects of the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), as well as the role of tokenized finance and the creation of a single digital financial market in Europe remain topical.
Enabling fintech corridors and cross-border payments requires significant progress in the application of AI, big data and quantum computing to integrate markets. All of these challenges surface periodically when it comes to reformatting the global financial system.
War changes plans
Meanwhile, regional conflicts may change the global financial system more than many people now realize. Before the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, the Gulf states had a systemic influence on the world economy, remaining a significant source of global liquidity.
The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – have emerged over several decades as one of the most influential forces in the global financial system. But there is a risk that the increased financing needs of these countries due to the war could affect global financial flows, even if the long-term stability of the region is intact.
“Any changes in global capital flows come at a time when the world economy is facing serious challenges. Large budget deficits in developed countries and the need to refinance debt obligations are driving bond issuance around the world. At the same time, the development of artificial intelligence requires significant financial investments, and in some countries there is an emerging need for corporate refinancing,” says Mohammed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz.
What will be the outcome? “Higher and longer term” interest rates on loans have a devastating effect on countries’ economies, corporations and households. The longer the war lasts, the greater this impact, which could exacerbate existing financial problems Such as the AI bubble, some segments of private lending and government debt, and lead to new difficulties, the expert said.
A temporary change in international financial flows may lead the system to a new quality, to be taken into account when analyzing the global economic and financial consequences of the war in Iran.
Like disruptions in energy supplies, these economic consequences of the war are already being felt around the world in the form of rising prices and higher credit costs, threatening economic growth, employment and financial stability.
