Leading currencies declined on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after President Donald Trump signaled further escalation of conflict in the Middle East, leading to a return of investment to safe haven assets.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4 percent, recovering from two days of losses.
Trump’s speech signaled a further escalation of the war with Iran. Trump said the United States will intensify military operations against Iran over the next “two to three weeks”, without clarity on the prospects for a ceasefire.
The statements dampened earlier optimism about an imminent de-escalation of the conflict, which earlier this week pressured the dollar and supported regional currencies.
Oil prices rose again, reinforcing inflation risks and the cautious outlook for monetary policy.
The British pound sterling (GBP/USD) fell 0.75%, while the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) gained 0.5%. The euro/USD exchange rate fell by 0.6%.
Forecasts
Some analysts (e.g. from Goldman Sachs) believe that the dollar’s violent rally could slow down if the conflict in Iran drags on or the US economy begins to cool in the second half of 2026.
In Moldova, the official exchange rate lives by its own rules. At the beginning of April, the dollar became noticeably cheaper, decreasing by 20 bani (17.49 lei – as of April 2) compared to the previous indicators. The euro exchange rate remained stable and practically did not change against the leu (20.28 lei).
Since January 1, 2025, the National Bank of Moldova switched to the use of the euro as the main peg currency instead of the US dollar. This led to the fact that the leu exchange rate became more dependent on the dynamics of EUR/USD pair on the world markets.
Since the beginning of the year, there was a tendency of dollar depreciation against a basket of major currencies on the world markets, which directly affected its value in Moldova. This inertia against the background of the last tendency of dollar strengthening has not been overcome yet.
Besides, in the domestic market the level of currency supply by individuals remains at an acceptable level, due to receipts from abroad.
