The forecast of the bank’s analysts suggests that the average price of Brent will be around $125 per barrel in April. A similar forecast for the whole of 2026 was raised to $80 a barrel from $65 a barrel.
“The region remains fundamentally paralyzed,” Societe Generale analysts said. – “Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have let some oil through other routes, yes Iran makes occasional deliveries.”
The deepening confrontation between the US/Israel on the one hand, and Iran on the other, destroys any realistic chance of de-escalation in the short term, the bank’s experts believe. According to them, supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf are manifested in a tangible shortage of crude oil and petroleum products in Asia, reports ProFinance.ru by Bloomberg.
Reduction of stocks and price fluctuations
According to Societe Generale estimates, in the first three weeks of March world oil reserves decreased by about 150 million barrels.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned if oil prices soar to $150 a barrel, it could trigger a “global recession.”
Meanwhile, analysts believe that oil traders make good money on price fluctuations, using derivatives market instruments (futures, options) to speculate on the difference in value, especially in periods of high volatility. Income is generated by correctly forecasting events affecting the market.
Brent prices soared above $115 amid supply concerns, but are correcting on signs of de-escalation or an increase in commercial inventories. Data from the US Department of Energy show multidirectional dynamics: rising inventories are weighing on the market, but temporary supply disruptions can turn quotes sharply upward.
Forecasts of Goldman Sachs experts raise expectations, predicting high prices due to the supply shock. Meanwhile, the impact of falling prices, if it happens, threatens the profitability of production, and rising prices are a temporary solution for budgets, they warn.
At the moment, the oil market remains in a state of high uncertainty, where news of logistical problems in the Middle East play a key role in price fluctuations.
