This data is contained in a report by Novel Research, a research company, based on the 11 months of 2025.
According to the cited document, the black market for cigarettes increased by 3 percentage points to 12.6% of total consumption in November 2025, up from 9.6% in September. This is the highest level of illicit cigarette trade in the last six years.
The average illicit trade in 2025 is 10.6%, up from an average of 9% in 2024. And it’s the largest annual increase since 2014.
“The main source for the black market in Romania remains Bulgaria, with a share of more than 30%, although it has decreased by 5.1 percentage points. In contrast, the share of products originating from Moldova increased by 5.4 percentage points to 23.8%. For the whole year 2025, the annual average for products originating in Bulgaria is 31.4%, an increase of 10.1 percentage points compared to 2024, while for products originating in Moldova it is 17.3%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points,” said Marian Marcu, CEO of Novel Research.
Meanwhile, the results of efforts to fight the black market are impressive: according to StopContrabanda.ro, in 2025, authorities confiscated about 210 million cigarettes with a market value of about 40 million euros. These figures are eloquent testimony to the scale and impact of the phenomenon and fully justify the inclusion of the fight against smuggling as a priority in the National Defense Strategy 2025-2030, said Director Ileana Dumitru, representing the External Relations Department in Southeast Europe of tobacco company BAT.
The key factor remains the difference in price: illegal packs cost an average of 19.1 Romanian lei (74 Moldovan lei), compared to 27.3 RON (105.75 MDL) on the legal market.
“According to our internal estimates, Romania has lost more than €500 million in tax revenue in 2025 due to the illegal cigarette market,” said Gerald Thijssen, director of Imperial Brands Romania.
