“Wheat and cornprices rose on the first trading day after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as markets reacted to uncertainty. Prices then fell in the following days, showing that the impact quickly waned,” the company said in a publication cited by Finam ( ). However, there are three scenarios for the situation. The first is if the supply chain disruption lasts for about a month. The second – turbulence for three months. The third – problems for about six months.
Unfolding evolution of the global grain market
In the first case, analysts believe that the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran is likely to have only a minor indirect impact on agricultural products, as trade between the Middle East and major food exporters (grains and processed products) is limited. However, the conflict could still make prices more volatile as hedge fund trading activity could trigger short-term fluctuations.
The second scenario is also very likely, but with roughly the same outcome. In this case, global supply would remain ample, but deficits could widen by late spring if new factors related to the state of the 2026 crop emerge. Grain trade “in the three-month horizon” is likely to decline, following the seasonal pattern, as most of the import needs will be met.
In the third scenario, the cessation of grain purchases by the Gulf countries would put pressure on prices as exporters look for other buyers for spare volumes. In this case, part of the grain export commodity flow from the Black Sea region is likely to be directed to Turkey, but part of these supplies will be destined for Iran.
Gulf countries will start buying from many suppliers, so a drop in demand could disrupt trade initially. In the longer term, higher fuel prices remain the main source of upward pressure. More expensive fuel will lead to higher freight and fertilizer costs, higher import costs, and reduced planted area, yields, and production – but in the next crop.
