But if the conflict had happened in January, the situation for agribusiness would have been much worse. And now, logically, this situation should not be converted into a significant rise in the price of mineral fertilizers in Moldova. Since “at least 90% of these resources for the first and second group of crops have already been imported – imported or are on their way to the country”, market operators believe.
Representatives of the companies supplying resources for Moldovan agriculture, in response to the Logos Press correspondent’s inquiry, noted that a very significant part of imported fertilizers has already been paid for by farmers and shipped to them. Adjustment of the price for the remaining part of imported, but not yet sold nitrogen fertilizers, is possible – within the limits of the exchange rate difference of currencies and the rise in the cost of transport logistics. However, there is unlikely to be a significant speculative increase in fertilizer prices.
At least because after the reduction of supplies to the Moldovan market in the previous season (by about 15-25% – depending on the specific product), imports of nitrogen fertilizers to Moldova for the harvest-2026 have increased significantly. According to market operators’ estimates – up to 50-60 thousand tons, at least. If the country receives a cargo of mineral fertilizers from several more ships, the situation on the market will be generally calm, with some margin of stability even in case of force majeure.
To feed or not to feed winter crops?
The war in the Middle East and its immediate consequences have fully activated the “uncertainty factor” on the threshold of spring field work in Europe. However, as experts note, Moldova in the last five years has rarely completed wintering with such a significant reserve of moisture in the soil after the fall-winter period and without significant damage to winter crops from frosts.
Consequently, there is a chance for a good harvest of field crops, at least in the “cold period” of the season. This means that significant savings of resources, in particular, on fertilizers and other mandatory elements of agro-technologies may turn out to be a less effective strategy than betting on a good harvest and sufficiently high prices for products.
According to Iurie Rizhi, an expert in agro-marketing, based on current prices, a Moldovan farmer at the moment needs to sell about 3.2-3.6 tons of wheat to buy a ton of nitrogen fertilizers of one kind or another.
However, input suppliers believe that the current grain/fertilizer ratio is still quite acceptable. Over the last five years, it has never been lower than 2.5/1 in Moldova. Moreover, fertilizer costs at the yield levels of the last few years are almost guaranteed to be recouped even if the grain/fertilizer ratio changes to 5/1.
In the short term, i.e. until the new crop appears on the grain market, wheat prices (currently the least profitable commodity of the grain group) are unlikely to decrease compared to their current level. Since even before the attacks on Iran, fall wheat futures were higher than spot contracts on European and U.S. exchanges, which does not happen very often.
And the outbreak of war and logistical problems in the Persian Gulf caused a decisive change in the price trend for grain towards growth.
Consequently, the question – to feed or not to feed winter crops for the future harvest – becomes rhetorical for Moldovan farmers.
