blockchain, cryptocurrency, NBM, Anca Dragu
The regulator confirms that starting from the second quarter of 2025 annual inflation will change direction and will tend to decline throughout the forecast period(Q2 2025 – Q1 2027). However, it will not be able to overcome the boundaries of the target range for at least six months, then it will stabilize by early 2026 and will start to decline again almost until the end of the forecast period.
The annualized core inflation rate has been revised upward through the second quarter of 2026 and downward for the remainder of the forecast period. Nevertheless, food inflation will develop in a wavelike fashion. The annual rate of increase in food prices will continue until the beginning of the summer season, after which it will slow down – until the first half of the next year and will start growing again with acceleration – until 2027, the NBM forecasts.
The annual rate of regulated prices will decrease in the first half of the forecast period, followed by stabilization and decrease again in the beginning of 2027. The annual rate of increase in fuel prices will decline in the first quarter of the forecast and will record negative values until the second quarter of 2026, after which it will resume growth starting in the third quarter of 2026.
Negative aggregate demand throughout the forecast period will be driven by tight monetary conditions and, to a lesser extent, the negative impact of external demand. Positive fiscal impulse will also have a negative impact on aggregate demand and a disinflationary effect.
Read more in the next issue of LP.
