As agro-marketing expert Yuri Rizha notes, a review of results on major commodity exchanges for the middle of this week shows the activation of funds in the segment of long-term contracts for the purchase of corn (more than 78 thousand deals), soybeans (about 225 thousand deals), soybean oil (102 thousand deals) and soybean meal (58 thousand deals). Livestock products are also in demand: 127 thousand “long contracts” for pork and 109 thousand for beef.
Such distribution of “speculative interest” shows that hedge funds are betting mainly on vegetable and animal protein supply chains, which indicates the expectation of stable global demand for animal feed, as well as for oilseeds and vegetable oils. Wheat demand is moderate, with a slight negative trend.
On the U.S. CBOT exchange, corn is trading in a range of about $4.46-4.76/bushel, corresponding to levels from about $175-187/t; soybeans are trading from about $11.50-$12.33/bushel ($423-453/t); and wheat is trading from $5.76-6.42/t ($212-236/t). These “technical ranges” are closely watched by funds, as a break above the upper levels generates automatic buy signals that can accelerate the uptrend, while a dip beyond the lower levels triggers sell commands.
Weather and crop area factors
Fundamentally, the grain market is currently under the influence of several factors acting simultaneously. In South America, Brazil’s soybean production estimates have been lowered in the WASDE report to about 179 million tons, which is favorable for strengthening oilseed prices.
At the same time, global corn stocks are expected to rise, and the market is closely watching U.S. farmers’ decisions regarding planted acreage in the spring of 2026. If U.S. corn acreage exceeds about 37 million hectares – this could mean pressure on stocks and support prices in a moderate range. However, if the area falls below 35 million hectares, the market could enter a phase of relative scarcity, which would support prices.
Impact of the energy crisis
In econometric models used by exchange players, an increase in oil prices by about $10/barrel can lead to a systemic (with a delay of several months) increase in grain prices by about 5-8%. That is, an increase in prices for oil products during the active period of field work in the Northern Hemisphere will necessarily lead to an increase in the price of agricultural products.
For farmers and traders in the Republic of Moldova, these signals indicate that grain prices in the Black Sea basin will still depend on the dynamics of international exchanges, and any significant fluctuations on CBOT or MATIF markets will inevitably affect local prices for wheat, corn, oilseeds. At the moment, the dynamics is positive.
