GDP "fell short" of the forecast
Moldova’s GDP growth in 2025 (expected, according to IMF forecasts, at 2.7%), compared to 2024, is due to the recovery of domestic demand, increase in investments in fixed capital (by 16.9%) and growth in household consumption (+3.5%).
Agriculture (10.7% increase in GVA), construction (GVA +6.6;), IT (GVA +12.5%) and energy were also key drivers. Energy production and supply grew by 20%, while industrial production as a whole started to recover after three years of decline.
Foreign trade had a significant negative impact on growth due to a sharp rise in imports and weak agri-food exports. Net exports of goods and services led to a 5.8% decline in GDP, following a 12.6% increase in imports of goods and services, compared to a slower 4.4% increase in exports of goods and services.
Average annual price growth remained at around 8%, which exceeded the National Bank’s target (5%) and limited purchasing power.
Wholesale and retail trade (2% GVA decline), transportation and storage (7.2% GVA decline), and real estate transactions (which led to a 0.6% decline in GDP and -7.2% GVA) were also dragged down.
Net taxes on products, accounting for 14.2% of GDP, contributed 0.2% to GDP growth, with a 1.7% increase.
