The representatives of the European Union, who visited the authority with evaluation missions, will provide technical assistance to the NBS in the implementation of common standards with Eurostat. Thus, during the consultations, the European partners reiterated the importance of including non-market producers in the public administration sector as an essential element for the correct assessment of public debt.
The discussions also addressed issues related to foreign trade statistics, dynamics of re-exports and its impact on the trade deficit, as well as problems related to the timing of publication of final GDP data and the use of additional administrative and statistical sources in its calculation.
What needs to be done?
The mission discussed the implementation of the Classification of Individual Consumption by Destination (COICOP) 2018, which is an international benchmark classification of household expenditure. Also discussed was the approach used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to calculate expenditure-based GDP, the identification and classification of goods by type and intended use, and the processing of the PRODMOLD database for integration into the COICOP 2018 calculation system. The NBS is making the transition from COICOP 1999 to COICOP 2018 for the table of flows of imported and exported goods.
Discussions focused on Eurostat’s requirements for the EDAMIS (Electronic Data Administration and Management System) platform, the standard application used to transmit statistical data to Eurostat. The system acts as a single entry point (SEP), facilitating the transfer, management and administration of data between national statistical offices and the European Union.
The System of National Accounts has been criticized
A revision of Moldova’s GDP estimation model is needed to ensure a more accurate measurement of economic growth, says Anca Dragu, head of the NBM. She has long advocated the modernization of GDP calculation methods, considering it necessary, in particular, to revise the model of value added, intangible assets and productivity, including the high level of digitalization of public and financial services, in order to reflect economic realities more accurately.
Dragu believes that traditional indicators may underestimate the real contribution of innovative sectors, which is critical for effective monetary policy decisions. Ignoring non-market transactions when the System of National Accounts (SNA) does not take into account free domestic labor, child care and volunteering leads to underestimating the real amount of economic activity.
SNAs also poorly capture the value added by digital services and the value of user-generated data. The complexity of such accounting is a global problem that economists have long struggled with, suspecting that reliable data in this area will be very difficult to achieve. As is the accounting for the value added by innovative, creative and other poorly measurable activities.
Weaknesses of national accounts
In addition to the fact that the SNA often underestimates the contribution of intellectual capital and innovation to long-term growth, domestic statistics are virtually devoid of indicators of wealth, the savings rate of the population, and consumer dynamics of demand and supply in the markets for goods and services.
The SNA calculation of GDP measures market output, not quality of life or the level of income distribution. And the activities of “black” and “gray” markets are extremely difficult to assess accurately, which creates additional difficulties for production accounting, not to mention productivity, which official statistics stopped counting long ago.
Macroeconomic indicators do not reflect a number of other modern realities specific to the country, experts say, when they doubt the completeness and reliability of official statistical data.
According to NBS Director General Oleg Kara, the agency is now working on a roadmap for the development of national accounts, GFS and EDP, which will be submitted to Eurostat, taking into account the comments received.
