The company’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said that fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bearish trend, forklog.com wrote.
A similar position is taken by the ex-head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes. He stated that bitcoin has not yet decoupled from the dynamics of US tech SaaS companies. This confirms the theory that the current price growth is only a temporary rebound, not the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
Hayes believes that the market is still at risk and advises investors to remain patient.
The current strengthening of the asset is largely due to a decrease in selling pressure. On the spot market, the demand deficit narrowed from -136,000 BTC to -25,000 BTC. In parallel, interest from U.S. investors increased: the premium on the Coinbase exchange became positive for the first time since last October.
Speculators and long-term investors also reduced sales. Unrealized losses of traders reached the values of July 2022 – at such values holders are usually not ready to close positions in the negative. Sales by long-term holders fell from 904,000 BTC in November to 276,000 BTC.
Return of the whales
The market is also seeing a resurgence in the institutional sector. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the recent $500 million daily inflow almost completely offset the outflows from spot bitcoin-ETFs recorded since the beginning of the year. Positive dynamics was recorded in 10 out of 11 leading funds.
Balchunas also emphasized that the first cryptocurrency added about 12% amid the aggravation in the Middle East and the growth of geopolitical risks, while the price of gold, on the contrary, declined.
However, the analyst warned against hasty conclusions that the precious metal has lost the status of a safe haven asset, and bitcoin is driven solely by geopolitics. According to him, the short-term market movements are also influenced by other factors: profit taking, change of investors’ moods and weakening of institutional flows.
Despite the localized positivity, the Bitcoin Bull Score index is deadlocked at 10 out of 100. This indicates continued overall market weakness.
Should bitcoin continue to rise, it will face resistance at the $79,000 and $90,000 levels, Moreno said. These marks correspond to the realized price of traders – similar values have already stopped the rally of the coin in mid-January.
Recall, March 4, quotes of the first cryptocurrency briefly exceeded the $74,000 mark.
