The National Bank of Moldova projected average annual inflation for 2026 at around 5.0% if regulated energy prices do not create a significant pro-inflationary risk. These forecasts are probably not destined to come true.
Average year-on-year food prices increased by 6.9% in February, non-food prices by 1.9%, and personal services by 7.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS also notes that since the beginning of the year, average consumer prices have increased by 1.4%, including food products – by 3.1% and non-food products – by 1.0%. Average consumer prices for services provided to the population decreased by 0.3%.
Food for the year
In the segment of food products over the last 12 months, the most notable growth was recorded in the following categories: eggs – by 30.6%, fruits – by 20.7%, vegetables – by 13.2%, vegetable oil – by 8.9%, bread – by 5.8%, milk and dairy products – by 4.3%. At the same time, compared to the same month last year, sugar prices decreased by 4.4%.
Other goods
In the non-food segment, average consumer prices increased by 1.9% y-o-y in February 2025, with the most significant increases recorded for footwear by 5.2%, clothing by 5.0%, building materials by 3.9% and medicines by 3.0%. At the same time, fuel and motor fuel prices decreased by 3.4% in February 2026 compared to February 2025.
Services
In personal services, average consumer prices increased 7.0% over the past 12 months. The most significant growth compared to February 2025 was recorded in the sphere of water supply and sewerage – by 19.7%, electricity – by 16.4%, public catering – by 11.6%, passenger transportation – by 6.8%. At the same time, compared to February last year, regulated tariffs for gas supply services decreased by 12.4%, and for heat energy – by 9.7%.
