Ukraine: internal weaknesses, external pressure
“The apple coming out of refrigerators today shows low transportability and short shelf life,” AgroTimes portal quotes Vladimir Gurdzhiya, head of USPA Fruit, as saying.
According to him, one of the key problems is the harvesting of part of the crop in conditions of prolonged rains, which negatively affected the ability of the fruit to be stored and withstand transportation. Because of this, apples from cold stores, even with a controlled gas environment, are not of high quality.
Meanwhile, the apple market in Ukraine is entering a critical stage. Polish import has actually started. Domestic prices at tenders of large retail chains in Ukraine already fluctuate in a rather wide range – from 26 to 36 hryvnias/kg. This variation reflects the unevenness of supply: some producers are trying to sell their leftovers faster, and there are more and more such players on the market.
External pressure is also increasing. Polish apples of basic varieties are offered at affordable prices and practically do not yield to Ukrainian products in terms of quality, which only stimulates imports. With such development of events, downward price correction looks quite real – especially if the market will not have time to absorb the available volumes before the season closes.
Moldova: weak exports, low domestic demand
Unlike Ukraine, where a large domestic market “does the weather” in the apple segment, Moldova’s apple business is mainly focused on export supplies. And this spring they are far from being in order.
As previously wrote Logos Press, in March of this year external supplies of Moldovan apple were almost twice lower than last year’s level in the same month – only 11 thousand tons. At the same time, the bulk of exports went to just two countries: Russia (more than 5 thousand tons) and Romania (more than 4 thousand tons).
This is important in the context that in April Moldova denounced the CIS membership agreement at the legislative level. It will finally cease not suddenly – within the next 12 months. However, the Russian leadership can asymmetrically react to this “geopolitical signal” already now, i.e. – suddenly find an administrative reason to stop deliveries of Moldovan apples, or create prerequisites that reduce their economic feasibility.
Moldovan business experts note that, in principle, Moldova has built in advance bilateral relations with some CIS countries, which buy fruit from Moldova in significant quantities. In particular, with the countries of Central Asia. However, to the greatest extent, the apple segment of Moldovan fruit growing depends on the Russian market. It will hardly be possible to replace it quickly (in case of problems at the end of the current season).
“If on the Moldovan market remains a significant share of that apple, which was intended this spring for the Russian market, problems will arise not only for the holders of this product, but also for all operators of the fruit market of Moldova, – believes the head of the entrepreneurial cooperative Frech Time Vitalii Obrezanu. – Excessive volumes of goods at the end of the season will put significant pressure on prices”.
Will the export strategy be revised?
At the same time, the market of neighboring Romania, as market operators point out, “is very promising, growing, but at the moment it is not very elastic”. There are many reasons for this: the energy crisis (and the logistics crisis provoked by it), the declining purchasing power of the population, and intensifying competition.
Polish apples have become more intensive not only on the Ukrainian market, but also on the Romanian market. Some traders do not exclude that at the end of April and in May it may also appear on the shelves of supermarkets in Moldova – for example, in the segment of premium quality fruits and certain varieties (in particular, “Golden”).
The increase of Moldovan apple supplies to the Middle East countries, which was recorded in the second half of the marketing season in previous years, is unlikely to happen this year. As noted in the management of Moldova Fruct, last year the export of Moldovan apple to the Middle East market decreased compared to 2024 and 2023 by about 40% (from more than 2 thousand tons to just over 1 thousand tons). The ongoing tensions in the region leave little hope for increased supplies. It is likely that by the end of 2025-26, apple exports from the Middle East from the Republic of Moldova will decrease by another 40-50%.
In a conversation with Logos Press correspondent, Iurie Fale, executive director of Moldova Fruct, suggested that at the end of the current marketing year, farmers and traders may have to adjust their apple sales strategy. In particular, to sell more apples in the first half of the season and less in the second half of the season.
