This would put the average inflation rate at 5.0% in 2026 under the new forecast, and 4.5% in 2027.
The increase in the current forecast, according to the regulator, is due to “higher than expected actual inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase in the short-term forecast for the first quarter of 2026, a higher forecast of international oil prices until the third quarter of 2026”.
The NBM also sees higher imported natural gas prices in the second and third quarters of 2026 as the reason for higher inflationary pressures. From next year, the regulator “vangues” lower dynamics of international oil prices, and by the end of 2027 – for natural gas.
The current forecast was also affected by a number of internal risks related to “the timing and scope of tariff adjustments for regulated services, the vulnerability of domestic prices for fruits and vegetables to weather conditions, uncertainty regarding agricultural production next year, as well as the reduction in the number of consumers residing on the territory of the Republic of Moldova”.
At the same time, significant dangers to the medium-term inflation outlook continue to emanate from the external environment: “ongoing peace talks over the war in Ukraine, public spending cuts in the euro area and the EU, continued fragmentation of international trade, further widening of the oil market surplus, rising prices of gold and other precious metals, as well as geopolitical tensions and distortions”, the regulator concludes, promising to provide a more detailed inflation forecast soon.
