Bitcoin’s price fell over the weekend below $78,000, the lowest level since April. The decline came amid profit taking, reduced liquidity and a lack of new buyers, writes coindesk.com.
What is the reason for the drop?
Traders reported that the growth previously fueled by corporate demand – particularly Strategy (MSTR)’s bitcoin purchases – had exhausted itself. As a result, the market became vulnerable to forced sales and derivatives liquidations.
Some market analysts believe Saturday’s decline fits into a broader bearish trend that has been building for months. Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has argued since late October: bitcoin is in a sideways or downward phase. In his opinion, optimism about a return to new highs – or a shift of funds from metals back into cryptocurrencies – is nothing more than “hope” for the bulls.
“Since late October, I believe BTC has been in a sideways and downward phase … I don’t think the $80,000 level is a macro high for bitcoin,” Crown said.
He now publishes updates on the crypto market for more than 200,000 subscribers and emphasizes: the recent price fluctuations could be part of a larger corrective phase.
What is affecting the exchange rate?
Crown points to several technical indicators that have historically heralded deeper corrections.
The monthly MACD indicator crossed the line to the downside in November, a rare signal that preceded extended declines in previous cycles.
In addition, the weekly EMA indicator (21 vs. 55) recently crossed into bearish territory. This is usually followed by multi-month losses. And the annual chart for 2025 closed in a “shooting star” pattern, a candlestick pattern that often signals a medium-term reversal.
The situation for bulls is exacerbated by the fact that since October, bitcoin has been moving at odds with traditional markets: it has been declining while stocks and other risk assets have held up. Crown sees this as typical behavior late in the cycle, when investors begin to de-risk.
While Crowne doesn’t hold the most extreme bearish outlook, he concedes that bitcoin could fall to even lower levels – potentially to the $50,000-$60,000 zone – before stabilizing.
In fact, he argues that this range is an area he personally considers to increase his long-term positions, characterizing the current market as a phase of value accumulation rather than the end of a broader cryptocurrency cycle.
