This forecast is contained in the World Trade Organization’s latest forecast, released on April 16.
As noted in the WTO report, the forecast is based on the situation with foreign trade duties as of April 14. It is expected that the decline will be particularly sharp in North America, where exports will fall by 12.6%.
Moreover, experts do not rule out that if the situation worsens, world trade may fall by 1.5% this year. A moderate recovery of 2.5% is expected in 2026.
The organization’s analysts also expect global trade in commercial services to grow by 4%. That seems good, but it’s also slower than previously estimated.
WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said commenting on the report that she was deeply concerned about the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, including the standoff between the US and China.
The WTO press release emphasized that the latest forecast shows a turnaround from 2024, when global trade in goods grew by 2.9% and global GDP grew by 2.8%. This makes 2024 the first year since 2017 (excluding the recovery period after the COVID-19 pandemic) when merchandise trade grew faster than production.
