The world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 after 3.3% in 2024. Stable GDP growth rates are ensured by trade expansion and a boom in investments in artificial intelligence despite trade barriers and a record high level of uncertainty, experts say.
This forecast is contained in the December report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), notable because it is the last 2025 review of the global economy from international organizations.
Expectations for the euro zone countries, China and the United States for this year are slightly improved in the report, although the growth of these economies is likely to slow down as early as 2026. Among the reasons are lower rates of trade volume growth, rising prices amid the lagged effects of US tariff restrictions and a further squeeze on investment activity by businesses uncertain about their near-term prospects.
Given the expected slowdown in global trade growth (to 2.3% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025), global GDP may expand by a more modest 2.9% next year, the OECD forecasts. Among the reasons are the lagged effects of US tariff policy. Prices for certain categories of goods have not yet risen, as the countries hit by the restrictions have been buying “in advance” in anticipation of the restrictions. Despite the general adaptation to the changing rules of the game, the investment activity of entrepreneurs in both developed and developing economies will shrink, according to OECD experts.
“The global economy has been more resilient than expected this year, driven by improving financial conditions, growth in AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies. However, underlying vulnerabilities are intensifying. Labor markets are showing early signs of weakening and confidence is faltering. Risks to the outlook remain significant, including the prospect of additional trade barriers, a potential sharp reassessment of risk in financial markets related to cryptoasset volatility. Persistent fiscal challenges could increase the debt service burden, potentially constraining economic growth,” the report said.
