According to analysts from Novel Research, Romania’s black market for cigarettes grew in January 2025, with a 10% share of total cigarette consumption. The January figure is higher than the annual average for 2024 (9%), it is also the highest in the last four years.
According to Marian Marcu, CEO of Novel Research, for the first time, the region most affected by the illegal trade was the west of Romania. There, the share of illegals is 14.8%. In the northeastern region, the black market accounts for 12.3%, while in the south it is 11.5%.
In terms of the origin of illegal products, the largest share is in the Duty Free sector – 35.2% (+7.5 p. p.), followed by Bulgaria – 32% (+8.7%). Smuggling from Moldova accounted for 10.5%.
“Romania applies the highest tobacco taxes in the EU in relation to the purchasing power of the population. But being next door to countries with cheaper products, it is both a transit country and a smuggling destination. Its record level of 10% of the total market reflects the social acceptability of illicit products as well as the increased interest of criminal networks that seek to get closer to the most lucrative markets, including through production processes in clandestine factories,” said Ileana Dumitru, BAT’s director of external relations for the Southeast Europe region.
