At the same time, the NBM reduces the norms of mandatory reserves in order to ensure liquidity in the banking system. The norm of mandatory reserves attracted in Moldovan lei and in non-convertible currency is reduced from 20% to 18%. Reservation of funds in foreign currency – from 29% to 26% of the calculation base.
The regulator explains its decision by “delays” of the impact of the previous monetary policy decision to support aggregate demand. And warns that “the effect of this measure” will also spread slowly, contributing to “lowering the cost of liabilities attracted by the banking sector, interest rates in the monetary, deposit and credit markets”.
National Bank forecasts
The current round of the NBM’s medium-term inflation forecasts is unchanged. The central bank, as before, says that annual inflation “will return to the target range in the first quarter of this year and remain close to the target until the end of the forecast period.”
Annual inflation will record a small decline early next year, followed by a fairly long period of stabilization during the last three quarters of 2027. Average annual inflation for 2026 and 2027 will be 5.0% and 4.5%, respectively, which will be slightly higher than the previously projected rate for 2026.
This revision to the short-term forecast for the first quarter of 2026 is due to a higher forecast for “international oil prices through the third quarter of 2026, as well as higher import prices for natural gas in the second and third quarters of 2026.”
As for annual inflation, as Logos Press wrote, the downward projections are due to “a lower outlook for international food prices and more negative aggregate demand.”
To all the other, now traditional risks to the NBM’s outlook, it adds another signaling indicator of pressure on aggregate demand and keeping inflation in the target range – a decline in the number of consumers residing in the country. To the external risks is added the reduction of public expenditures in the eurozone and the EU.
