Adrian Lipkan
Global context: Europe enters the new season with a sugar surplus and falling prices
Europe is starting with a classic overproduction: too much sugar, the price goes down. For more than half a year now, wholesale prices have been falling across the continent – from the core to the periphery.
Current benchmarks: Germany – about 400 euros per ton, Romania – 470 eurosper ton, Ukraine – 350 euros per ton – on average about 30% lower than a year ago. The oversupply is also putting pressure on global quotations: the market assumes a decline to around 310 euro/t in the next two months.
The key issue for Europe today is not “self-sufficiency of the domestic market in theory”, but the competitiveness of European producers in realmarketconditions: production costs, efficiency, sustainability of raw materials and logistics.
Therefore, companies are reacting quickly. Specialized media in 2025 reported on the closure of five sugar factories in the EU. In January 2026, there were warnings of a possible pause at two more sites. And in February, it was already accepted as fact in the corporate environment that the factories in Italy and Slovakia would not start up this season.
Italy: a rational but painful pause. The suspension of the Coprob Italia Zuccheri plant in Pontelongo is a difficult decision, as it is the only national producer. But Coprob’s plan looks rational: the decision is based on a technical-economic-financial analysis; contracted beets are moved to Minerbio for processing, while maintaining the terms of the contract; human resources and a focus on climate resilience are emphasized.
Slovakia: final buzzer. Nordzucker ceases sugar production at Trenčianská Teplá after the 2025/26 season and retains the site as a commercial and logistics hub. The wording of the reasons is actually “bottom-line”: difficult market situation and long-term decline in profitability.
France: losses that cannot be explained by the weather alone. Tereos published a report: operating and net loss of 598 million euros for the three quarters of 2025/26 (against a profit of 218 million euros a year earlier). Goodwill and impairment write-downs, mainly in the key French sugar division, amounted to €499 million.
Germany: the impact of accounting on official decisions. The Executive Board of Südzucker AG proposed to suspend dividend payments for the 2025/26 fiscal year amid expectations of extraordinary impairments of fixed assets in the range of €450-550 million.
It’s no longer “the weather has failed”. It’s accounting – pure math that fixes it: the old model doesn’t work. For the EU-27 plus the UK, the commodity sector is expected to shrink by about 7.3%. In individual countries, it’s even deeper: Slovakia 56%, Spain almost 16%, Sweden 11%, Denmark 9%. This is not panic – it is a realignment of the industry to reality.
Moldova: crop losses in the fields – bills to consumers
Despite the relatively small area – about 11 thousand hectares for the crop-2025 – for the first time in the modern history of the sugar beet complex of Moldova, harvesting continued until the beginning of March 2026. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (MAIA), at the end of February 2026, farmers had about 2-2.2 thousand hectares left to be harvested, which is already a bad signal in itself.
But the other day there was some bad evidence: one of the sugar beet industry operators decided to “put under the plow ” – that is, simply plow/disk – about 1.5 thousand hectares of unharvested beets, effectively writing them off as losses. With the previously announced yield of 50 tons per hectare and the contract price of 1000 lei per ton, this means a loss of about 75 million lei. And this is in addition to the estimated losses of 150-200 million lei due to the late start and failures of the harvesting campaign last fall.
The harvest from the remaining hectares can be saved only in one case – if a Polish producer (a colleague in the industry, but a competitor in business) takes it for processing. We sincerely hope that the farmers’ labor will not be “buried” and will not be wasted.
The crisis is not only caused by the weather, but also by poor management and lack of “institutional memory” to respond to crises. Chaotic decisions were converted into mistrust between actors in the chain. According to farmers’ information, sugar producers do not intend to compensate even half of the direct losses. One company confirms payment for beets accepted for processing at 1,100 lei/t, while the other insists on 650 lei/t – no extra payments and no alternatives. In practice, this turns managerial failures into “price adjustments” at the expense of the grower: when there is no choice, the negotiating position disappears.
The factories’ approaches to assessing the physical contamination of raw materials also differ: about 15% for one producer versus 20-25% for another – and this directly affects the price of beets. In normal years, the contamination dispute is a technical issue. In conditions of late harvesting and narrow “windows” of acceptance, it becomes another mechanism for redistribution of losses “to the farmer’s disadvantage”.
What follows from the above? Alas, the partnership between farmers and sugar producers, which for years ensured the harvest, no longer works. The risks and financial losses fall on the farmers’ shoulders. The motivation to sow beets is lost, and the prospects for the new season are bleak and uncertain.
The key problem of the industry is management selected by political logic rather than meritocracy. Late adoption of international experience, lack of strategic vision and market analytics, and ignoring trends all make decisions late and expensive. Reputational problems of management further complicate dialog with government agencies and investors.
And against this background, the “carnival” of slogans about “national sugar security” sounds cynical. Because the real losses in the fields and logistics are paid for by the farmer and the consumer, not by correcting management and the rules of the game.
Usually by March the sugar beet complex understands the primary layout for the season – the scale of contracting and the structure of raw material zones. This year the situation is difficult to predict: skeptics expect the total area of beet for the harvest-2026 to reduce to 7 thousand hectares, optimists are still silent. Consequently, the economic feasibility of maintaining the operation of both sugar factories is becoming increasingly doubtful.
Sugar market price trends for the first half of 2026
Estimates by international organizations point to a global sugar market surplus of about 2 million tons in 2026 (ISOInternational Sugar Organization ). The oversupply is capable of keeping wholesale prices in Europe at$370-400/t at least in the first half of the year.
Hence, the “threshold of feeling” has already been formed: a household consumer has the right to see on the shelves in Moldova the price not higher than 16-17 lei/kg, and an industrial consumer should have access to purchases in the corridor of 14-15 lei/kg .Anything higher is financing systemic inefficiency.
The slogan is “we will provide the domestic market with 100%”, the reality is a high price for sugar
According to market operators’ data, the wholesale price of sugar in Moldova until recently was kept at the level of about 775 euro/t – one of the highest on the continent. And this is where the key conflict of interest comes into play.
The consumer – domestic and industrial – needs an acceptable price for sugar to maintain and expand the “success stories of Made in Moldova products” (confectionery, juices, ice cream, etc.). And the sugar beet complex operators need a high price for sugar, “stitched” into protective measures: a customs duty of about 75% and strictly limited import quotas in a preferential regime.
In the context of what is happening, the “protective measures” are, in fact, a “premium for inefficiency ” of one single industry. It is a tax on every consumer and every food producer. And the statement “Moldova will benefit if it consumes only local sugar” and “we will cover 100% of the market demand” looks less and less convincing. This is a convenient narrative for those who live off protectionism and are not ready for structural reforms.
Will the salvation of Moldova’s sugar industry come from the EU?
The fate of the sowing season and the future of Moldovan sugar production will depend not only on the weather and the mood of farmers. The European owners of Moldovan companies, who in parallel are undergoing reorganization of assets throughout Europe, have a weighty say.
Scenarios are being discussed in the corporate environment: change of inefficient management, suspension of certain production sites and even sale of assets. We know from reliable sources: the sugar factory of the Polish investor in Moldova is already visited by potential buyers from Romania, Ukraine and Moldova; even the price point of the potential deal is mentioned – about 6 million euros. On the other hand, the management of the German investor’s factory expects strategic decisions on management restructuring – similar to those taken for other assets with similar problems.
The question for the authorities of the Republic of Moldova is: who benefits from the current model of sugar business?
The key question remains open: what position will the Moldovan government take on the eve of the spring sowing campaign-2026?
For two decades, the sugar market of Moldova has been governed by the duty of about 75% and quotas for preferential imports. In parallel, mechanisms of targeted support of sugar beet cultivation are working. In 2025, about 50 million lei were allocated from the state budget for subsidies to the sector. Against this background, the absence of a mechanism for fair compensation of farmers’ direct losses (when beets are left in the field due to intake/processing failures) looks like a distortion: state money supports the “construction”, while the loss remains with the farmers.
The new subsidy law provides direct financial support for beet cultivation. But a logical question arises: why is the old way chosen again, if the fundamental problems of management, logistics and economic efficiency have not been solved? If money from the state budget is again used to “maintain the structure” – this is not a development policy. If the state confuses support for farmers with protection of processing inefficiency, the victory will be a pyrrhic one: the farmer will lose motivation, the food industry will lose an acceptable price for raw materials, the consumer will lose accessibility, and the budget will lose money. This is a policy of postponing the inevitable – with a higher bill.
The coming months could be a period of the most serious turbulence in the decade: asset write-downs, losses, restructurings and an accelerated redrawing of Europe’s sugar map.
It makes sense for Moldova to prepare for this pragmatically – both through diversification of agricultural production and transition to an efficiency economy. Otherwise, Moldova risks remaining an “island of the most expensive sugar“ in a sea of cheap competitive goods.
