According to a forecast conducted by researchers at the National Institute for Economic Research (ASEM), the real growth of the national economy is expected to be 1.2% in 2025, “indicating a very slow recovery due to a decline in agricultural production, stagnant external demand and higher-than-expected inflation.” International organizations believe that we may be talking about 1.5 – 1.7% GDP growth.
According to scientists, the forecast is influenced by a number of factors, “including internal and external exogenous variables determined by political decisions, the dynamics of the geopolitical situation and the results of partner economies”.
One of the important factors currently determining the dynamics of the Moldovan economy is the consumer price index. The average annual inflation rate for 2025 was revised from 4.0% to 6.5% due to “the persistence of inflationary pressure on food products and services, the increase in tariffs for some public utilities, as well as a slight weakening of the currencies of trading partners against the Moldovan leu”.
Core inflation is expected to remain moderate but “somewhat higher than in the original scenario,” reflecting a slower recovery in domestic supply and modest real wage growth. For Moldova, these changes could directly affect the population’s purchasing power and external competitiveness. Especially after real wage growth was revised downward from +7.9% to +1.3%.
Monitoring price dynamics and balancing monetary policy will be crucial for macroeconomic stability, according to the institute’s economists. Of course, further development of the situation “will be determined by the government’s decisions, especially given the need to accelerate structural reforms”. However, in the current environment, external factors will continue to play a decisive role, according to the authors of the updated study.
