According to data analyzed by the Financial Times, between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York, traders opened positions worth about $580 million, effectively betting on the fall in oil prices. As early as 7:04 a.m., the U.S. president issued a statement about “productive conversations” with Tehran, which instantly triggered a sell-off in the energy market, Business Insider notes.
The market reacted swiftly: oil fell below $100 per barrel, and stock indices, on the contrary, rose.
The synchronicity between the timing of the deals and the public announcement raised questions among analysts. As the media noted, such large positions opened “just minutes before the announcement” look at least unusual and “raise the question of whether someone knew in advance”.
Scale of bets and market reaction
We are talking about about 6,200 futures contracts for Brent and WTI crude oil – the world’s key benchmarks, the publication specifies.
The total nominal volume of these transactions amounted to about $580 million.
Almost immediately after the publication of Trump’s statement, oil prices went down sharply. According to Business Insider, WTI fell in price by about 10%, Brent – by more than 11%.
Against the backdrop of expectations of conflict de-escalation, investors began to actively withdraw from oil positions and move into equities, which intensified the movement.
The deals themselves, judging by their structure, represented a directed bet on price fall. As it is noted in the publications, such positions could bring quick profit within several minutes after the news release.
At that, it remains unclear whether these deals were made by one participant or several, emphasizes the publication.
Some analysts note that such coincidences do not necessarily mean the presence of insider trading, but “the scale and exact timing of transactions” go beyond the usual market activity.
Additional uncertainty is added by the fact that the Iranian side subsequently denied the talks themselves, calling Trump’s statements an attempt to influence the market.
