If the National Bank’s scenario is realized, GDP in 2025 will be 98.1% of the level recorded in 2021. Economic growth will be driven by consumption and investment. Wages, which are projected to increase by 5.1%, will determine the growth of household consumption.
Investments in fixed assets will be supported by the increase in financing from own sources of economic agents, as well as by the contribution of domestic credits and loans. At the same time, the dynamics of exports will be supported by the recovery of the agricultural sector. Agricultural production will increase by 14.0% after decreasing by 14.6% in 2024.
After inflation rose by 8.8% in the first quarter of 2025, the rate of price growth has slowed down and the inflation rate is expected to decline to 6.5% in the fourth quarter. Among the factors driving this trend are lower fuel prices and the effect of the agricultural sector recovering from the downturn recorded in 2024. A return to an acceptable range is not expected until 2026. This year will be marked by annual inflation of 7.5%, the NBM forecasts.
Nevertheless, developments in the first four months of 2025 point to faster growth in budget revenues compared to non-financial expenditures and assets – a 14.7% increase compared to a 10.7% rise. If this trend continues until the end of the year, the budget deficit in relation to GDP may approach the 2.5% threshold set in the Law on Public Finances.
The burden of servicing the public debt, however, affects both budget revenues and expenditures more and more. The maximum amount of repayments is due in 2025. Thus, the NBM forecast assumes a peak in the repayment of domestic public debt, while it mainly consists of instruments with short maturity.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the short-term segment of domestic public debt, annually refinanced through new issues of government bonds, represents a significant risk for the state budget due to the possible growth of interest rates in the domestic market.
External public debt is within safe limits, which indicates a low refinancing risk A total public debt represents, from the central bank’s point of view, “moderate refinancing risk”.
Analysis of the repayment profile of external public debt shows a relatively even distribution of payments starting from 2026, indicating low refinancing risk. This is facilitated by the repayment structure of external loans, which includes grace periods and long maturities. The maximum repayment volume also falls on the current year.
