Three of these themes have remained unchanged since last year, while societal shifts mark the evolution of their previous longevity theme.
“We see multiple trends with broad societal impacts across the globe, with effects felt across a surprisingly wide range of industries,” JPMorgan strategist Stephen Bird said in a note. -The ripple effects of AI-driven employment disruption/evolution, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, the desire for healthy longevity and challenging demographics in many regions will continue to matter for governments, economies and corporations.”
Within its four themes, Morgan Stanley presented 10 macro forecasts for 2026.
1. The two worlds of LLM progress and AI adoption
The Bank expects U.S. advanced large language models (LLMs) to make a significant leap in capabilities in the first half of 2026, while Chinese competitors will lag in the same period. Implementation concerns are expected to be replaced by optimism in the second half of the year when the benefits become more visible.
2. Demand for computing capacity exceeds supply
The growing complexity of AI and wider adoption is predicted to push demand for computing power well above supply growth. That said, Morgan Stanley says the economics for large-scale AI infrastructure are becoming increasingly attractive.
3. Robust U.S. policy agenda
The Trump administration is expected to act more aggressively than markets anticipate in securing critical minerals, boosting domestic manufacturing, increasing innovation-oriented military spending, and reducing consumer costs.
4. AI technology transfer and national self-sufficiency
China is expected to pressure the US for greater access to AI technologies while accelerating its own progress toward “gross domestic intelligence,” with national gaps in AI capabilities shaping future trade dynamics.
“In response to projections 1-3, China is pressuring the U.S. to allow more extensive transfer of AI technology to China. Inequalities in AI capabilities at the national level could affect trade dynamics,” Bird wrote.
5. Energy Policy
Rising global energy costs are likely to trigger a backlash against data center expansion and spur political support for low-cost and autonomous energy solutions, the strategist said.
6. Convergence of AI and energy infrastructure
Major AI players are expected to take greater control over energy assets to provide reliable, low-cost energy and improve efficiency through AI-assisted optimization.
7. Growing production in China and returning production in the U.S.
China is projected to expand its global share in technology-saturated manufacturing, while the U.S. is projected to benefit from a “manufacturing comeback renaissance” as technology reduces the advantage of cheap labor.
8. Latin America’s investment cycle
Policy changes, geopolitics and peak interest rates are pushing the region toward a new phase of growth based on investment rather than consumption, according to Morgan Stanley.
9 .Re-qualification and intervention due to job losses due to AI
Governments and corporations are expected to deploy large-scale retraining programs, along with policy responses to real or perceived employment disruptions caused by AI.
10. “Transformational AI” is changing the economy
By the second half of 2026, Morgan Stanley expects early signs of deflation in some parts of the economy, higher capital costs, changing asset valuations, and the growing importance of assets that cannot be “replicated” by AI.
