IMF experts noted that housing prices increased by 24% from the end of 2024 to mid-2025. They recommended that the authorities strengthen monitoring of real estate prices and bring the terms of the “Prima Casa” program in line with the general lending requirements, which will contribute to risk containment.
According to the head of the IMF mission in Moldova, Alina Iancu, the steady growth in lending and housing prices requires a more thorough supervision. In this context, the requirements to the borrowers within the Prima Casa program should be the same as those of the standard mortgage and consumer lending. She emphasized that it is about the need to reduce risks on the real estate market and prevent possible overheating by ensuring equal and transparent conditions of access to loans.
Experts warned that the renewed Prima Casa Plus program could lead to negative consequences for the real estate market as early as the beginning of 2025.
“Our assumptions that the price increase is caused by the launch of the Prima Casa program are confirmed,” Petru Oleinic, director of the real estate agency Nika Imobil, said in an interview with Logos Press. – When we make real estate valuation, there is a very important adjustment factor – “correction for financing conditions”. When the program “Prima Casa”, especially its updated version, offered a number of benefits that had never been, the market exploded. And all this happened against the backdrop of high rents last year, when it became profitable to buy apartments for investment purposes. That is, the decision was made without calculating the consequences for the market. And it is not excluded that the banking sector lobbying was involved”.
Indeed, “Prima Causa Plus” increased the credit limit for buying housing from 1 million lei to 2.5 million lei. It also increased the loan repayment period up to 30 years, as well as the possibility of lending to the self-employed (freelancers, notaries, lawyers, brokers, artists, etc.). And provided state guarantees covering up to 65% of the loan in Chisinau and up to 70% outside Chisinau. As well as the possibility of expanding the living space, if the existing housing does not exceed 50 square meters.
Real estate valuation expert Dmitri Tereburke warned at the time that the Chisinau real estate market is turning into a “price bubble” in the total absence of regulation and geopolitical uncertainty. It is under the total control of the financial sector, which heats up the market like the furnace of a steam locomotive.
“The cheap mortgages offered today by the Prima Casa program could turn into a social scandal in a few years,” he believes. – Financial institutions have provoked active demand through cheap mortgages. This is a good investment option for them”.
In his opinion, such “bubble degradation” of the market will not turn out well. Because the development of the real estate market is in no way connected, and even goes against the general socio-economic development of the country. The share of mortgages in the purchase of housing is off the scale. According to official statistics, at the beginning of 2025 it amounted to about 40%, but, according to the expert, this share in reality reached 60%. And for a normally functioning market this indicator should be at the level of 15-20%, maximum – up to 30%.
Economic expert Marin Gospodarenko also stated that the apartment market in the capital is “artificially overheated”. According to his calculations, the actual cost of building an apartment is about 500-600 euros per square meter, while the sale price reaches 1900 euros per square meter, and for the “premium” segment even up to 2500-3000 euros per square meter.
He noted that the shortage of apartments is created intentionally, development companies create subsidiary units that “buy out” the entire building at the construction stage, artificially limiting the supply and preferring to sell fewer apartments, but at double the price. They would rather sell five apartments for 200,000 euros than ten for 100,000. In this way they keep a ‘small’ supply in their hands”. This is a classic speculative scheme.
He also warned of the risks of the “Prima Casa Plus” program, under which up to 70% of the loan is guaranteed by the state.
Banks easily grant loans of 100 -150 thousand euros, because the state provides most of their coverage. If prices fall and it makes no sense to pay for an expensive loan or borrowers become insolvent, the budget will have to pay anyway. This will cause an explosive growth of domestic public debt.
Gospodarenko believes that the end of the war in Ukraine will be a trigger for a drop in housing prices in Chisinau. “The bubble has five stages, and we are already in the stagnation phase. A major spark can cut prices by 10% overnight, but it can also cut prices in half.”
According to the expert, the housing problem can be solved by transferring agricultural land on the outskirts of Chisinau (towards Guidigici or Grătieştişti) for construction. Where it is possible to quickly build 20-50 apartment houses and provide the needy with apartments at affordable prices. It was absolutely normal when favorable mortgages were used by civil servants – teachers, doctors, young families. It was a privilege for those with small salaries. And when practically all restrictions were removed, we got the situation we have today.
