World growth forecasts in the latest World Economic Outlook are revised upward, but continue to decline from forecasts made before the global policy change.
World growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. At the same time, advanced economies will grow at around 1.5%, while emerging market and developing economies will grow at just above 4%.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told a briefing that an escalating trade war between the US and China could negatively affect the global economic growth outlook. He said recent statements by officials from both countries make it “realize that trade uncertainty still persists.”
According to the updated forecast, Moldova’s economy will grow by 1.7% (+1.1%) by the end of 2025. In the United States, the indicator will be 2%, in the European Union – 1.2%, China – 4.8%, India – 6.6%.
The Fund also expects a further decline in global inflation, although with differences in different countries. In Moldova, it will be higher than the target level and will amount to 7.7% in 2025 (taking into account growth risks), while in other countries it will be more restrained.
Policymakers are urged to “rebuild confidence through credible, transparent and sustainable policies”. Trade diplomacy should be combined with macroeconomic adjustment. Fiscal reserves must be rebuilt. Central bank independence must be preserved. Structural reform efforts should be redoubled, the fund’s economists said.
