Investing.com notes that the currency impact represents a 3-4% headwind for earnings in 2026 and 2027, Bernstein analysts calculated. This would be relevant for companies reporting in U.S. dollars, with high international revenue or costs in U.S. dollars that are not linked to sales in other currencies.
Bernstein said Booking Holdings, Airbnb and Carnival are the most obvious beneficiaries. Booking stands out because nearly 80% of nights are booked outside the U.S., especially in Europe, where currencies have strengthened against the dollar.
Airbnb generates about 55% of its revenue outside the U.S., including 33% from Europe and about 11% each from Asia-Pacific and Latin America, while Carnival generates about 45% of its revenue internationally, mostly through its European cruise brands.
For these three companies, Bernstein raised earnings forecasts by 2-3% to reflect the translation benefit due to the weaker dollar. Hilton, Marriott, IHG and Royal Caribbean are also expected to see some growth, although the impact is less significant due to their smaller exposure outside the US.
The losers from dollar weakness are more peculiar. Accor is under pressure despite its limited U.S. room presence because many of its upscale hotels in the Middle East and Africa charge customers in dollars but report profits in euros.
Bernstein estimates that about 35% of Accor’s EBITDA is exposed to the dollar, creating a headwind when the currency weakens.
