Thus, in particular, on the U.S. exchanges prices of May futures for soft wheat rose to $214.49/t (CBOT, Chicago), for hard winter wheat – to $217.70/t (KCBT, Kansas City), for hard spring wheat – $227.99/t (MGEX, Minneapolis). On average, by the end of the working week quotations for durum wheat grew in the range of 2.7-3.9%, for soft wheat – 5.6%. The situation is influenced both by the growing uncertainty and the strengthening US dollar exchange rate, in which settlements in the world grain market are mainly made.
The European wheat market also demonstrated a confident “rally for higher prices”, supported not only by a jump in oil prices, but also by the risks of logistics failures in the Black Sea region. Thus, on the Paris-based MATIF/Euronext exchange, May futures rose by 2.7% to 207.50 €/t ($240.66/t) by the end of the week, the highest level since August last year.
“While the conflict between Israel, the US and Iran has not directly halted wheat supplies, soaring diesel and fertilizer prices (nitrogen up 4.8%) have created significant risks for growers, Trading Economics wrote.
Grain market problems are not only in the Middle East
Risks outside the Middle East are also growing. In March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA reported a 22% decrease in winter wheat crop condition assessment compared to the previous month. Problems may arise due to weak snow cover in the north and expanding drought in the plains of southern states.
These worrisome expectations are reinforced by a projected 20 percent decline in Russian grain exports in the final months of the 2025-26 marketing season. Grain availability from the Black Sea region is also limited by recurring logistical problems due to ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy and transportation (rail, port) infrastructure.
Also, operators of the world grain market in their decisions are increasingly oriented both on the current situation in the zones of geopolitical conflicts and, in particular, on the March WASDE report on the decline in global ending stocks of grain.
That is, in the short term, the supporting factors strongly outweigh the factors of weakening world grain prices.
