A key factor in the decline is the sharp decline in imports from Sudan and Iraq. In Sudan, the reopening of mills has facilitated a shift from flour imports to wheat purchases, which will see flour imports fall from 1.4 million tons to about 400,000 tons. Iraq, in turn, will reduce purchases by 500,000 tons to 700,000 tons, which may become the lowest figure in almost two decades, ukragroconsult writes with reference to the IGC report.
The decline in external sales at the global level is also partly due to the growth of domestic processing, government support for the industry and the growth of domestic grain production in some countries. An additional risk factor remains possible disruptions in logistics in the Gulf region, which could affect further trade dynamics.
At the same time, imports are expected to increase in a number of countries. In particular, Afghanistan may increase purchases to 3.8 million tons, and Syria – to a record 1 million tons due to problems with its own processing. Demand will also increase in some countries of Africa and Latin America, which will partially offset the general decline.
Among exporters, shipments from Egypt are forecast to fall to 600,000 tons, while Turkey will increase exports to 4.1 million tons, although this level will remain below the average of recent years. For the 2026/27 season, IGC expects a slight rebound in world flour trade to 16.2 million tons, but further dynamics will depend on demand, government policies and the situation in key importing countries.
