In December 2025, the cost of food in Moldova increased by 5.6%, compared to the same month of the previous year. The growth rate of food prices slowed down to 5.6% from 6.3% in November, mainly due to lower prices for vegetables, but also due to weaker price increases for meat, fruits, milk and dairy products, eggs and vegetable oil.
Food inflation averaged 9.07% from 2004 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of 38.39% in August 2022 and a record low of -9.80% in May 2009. There was no seasonal downturn last year, but towards the end of the year demand balanced to some extent the growth rate of imported raw materials and foodstuffs.
Moldova’s annual inflation rate fell to 6.8% in December 2025 from 7% in the previous month. Food price growth is expected to follow a declining trend until the third quarter of 2026, after which a slight increase is projected to be possible at the end of the year.
Inflation forecast
The NBM forecasts that average annual inflation in 2026 is expected to be 4.3%. This is higher than previous expectations (3.9%), due to tariff adjustments and the effects of last years’ drought. And the trend of decreasing annual rate will continue until the first half of 2026, after which annual inflation is forecasted to stabilize and slightly increase by the end of the year.
Nevertheless, the NBM plans to bring inflation back to the target range of 5% (±1.5%) already in the first quarter of 2026 and keep it within these limits. However, price dynamics in 2026 may be affected by the volatility of energy prices and the geopolitical situation in the region.
Tomorrow, February 5, the NBM will decide on the key rate based on the inflation risk adjustment. January values of inflationary pressures will affect the update of the inflation forecast for the medium term.
