Thus argues in his blog, economist Veaceslav Ionitsa.
According to him, the increase in prices for oil products has led to an increase in prices for gas, the main raw material for most fertilizers, and changes in international markets are almost entirely reflected in the import of these products to Moldova.
The correlation is almost perfect, as in the case of fuel, the expert notes.
On average, fertilizer prices rose by about 50% in February and March, peaking in March, which will put additional pressure on agricultural costs in 2026. However, their direct impact on farmers is still limited due to the import structure. About half of the annual requirement is imported in the first quarter, and only a third will be bought at high prices.
The economist notes that the experience of 2022-2023 shows the risks of continued high prices: the value of imports then rose to $70-75 million, but against a backdrop of reduced purchases, which affected fertilizer use and, indirectly, agricultural production.
If the current situation persists, the real impact will manifest itself in the second half of the year, when Moldova will import fertilizers at already inflated prices. In a pessimistic scenario, farmers could incur additional costs of up to one billion lei.
Compared to the size of the agricultural sector, estimated at 30-35 billion lei per year, this amount represents approximately 3% of the value of the agricultural production. However, according to Ionita, the real problem is that these costs directly affect farmers’ profits and can significantly reduce profitability.
In this context, Moldovan agriculture is simultaneously facing two major shocks: rising diesel prices, which affects the cost of agricultural work, and rising fertilizer prices, which affects productivity.
In the short term, the situation remains manageable, but in the medium term the risks increase. The economist emphasizes that the only factor that can offset these costs is a favorable agricultural year with a good harvest and favorable prices for the marketing of agricultural products.
In the absence of such a scenario, Ionitsa warns, the rise in fertilizer prices risks turning into a hidden crisis, which will only become apparent at the end of the agricultural season, when conclusions will be drawn about the harvest and profitability.
