In 2024, according to the UN world population projections, the birth rate in Moldova will be 13 children per 1000 inhabitants, while the world average is 16.1.
This average masks stark demographic inequalities: while much of Europe and East Asia is facing record low fertility, parts of sub-Saharan Africa continue to register some of the highest fertility rates in the world.
This growing gap is reshaping economies, labor markets, and long-term growth prospects. Countries with persistently low fertility rates are struggling with ageing populations and rising population burdens, while regions with higher growth rates face other challenges associated with rapid population growth.
Where are fertility rates highest?
The countries with the highest fertility are overwhelmingly concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as a few regions in the Middle East and Asia.
The difference between the countries with the highest and lowest fertility rates exceeds 40 births per 1,000 people.
The Central African Republic leads the world in fertility, with nearly 47 births per 1,000 people, followed by Chad, Somalia, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In these countries, large families are common, the population tends to be younger, with a high proportion of women of childbearing age.
High fertility is also found in parts of the Middle East and South Asia, including Afghanistan, Yemen and Pakistan, where fertility remains high despite a gradual decline over time.
Meanwhile, China and India continue to lead the world in total number of births, although their fertility rates are relatively lower (15.9 and 6.2, respectively).
Low fertility in developed countries
On the other hand, many developed countries now have fertility rates well below the world average.
Countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Italy and Spain have fewer than 7 children per 1,000 people, reflecting late family formation, high housing costs and changing social norms. A number of European countries, including Italy, Germany, Switzerland and Austria, also belong to this group of low-fertility countries.
Some of these countries are also among the countries with the highest levels of population ageing in the world, with more than 20 per cent of the population over 65 years of age.
Among our neighbors we should mention Romania, which is ranked 159th with a score of 9.4. As well as Ukraine, which is in 197th position with an index of 5.8 births per 1000 inhabitants. Only San Marino (5.7), Taiwan (5.4) and South Korea (4.8) are below Ukraine.
Why fertility rate is important
When fertility remains below replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for an extended period of time, countries face a shrinking labor force, rising population burden ratios, and increasing pressure on social welfare and health care systems. Over time, populations begin to shrink and age, creating long-term economic problems.
Conversely, very high fertility rates can put strain on education, infrastructure and job creation if economic growth does not keep pace.
As a result, governments around the world are increasingly focused on addressing population challenges and implementing population policies, whether through incentives for families, childcare support, or immigration.
