A significant upward revision of the forecast is due to an increase in the estimate of coarse grain production, primarily corn in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. To a lesser extent, but also significantly increased for the countries of Latin America sorghum production estimates. At the same time, estimates of corn yields in the European Union countries were significantly reduced due to drought, i.e. potential losses of sown areas and lower yields.
The September forecast for the world wheat crop is 804.9 million tons – lower than the July forecast, but still 6.9 million tons above the 2024 total on an annualized basis. The forecast is lowered due to worsening yield estimates in mainland China and Argentina. Whereas the EU wheat production forecast is slightly raised.
The estimate for world cereal consumption in 2025/26 is increased to 2922 million tons (+1.6% from 2024/25). The increase in projected consumption will also come mainly from coarse grains. At the same time, wheat consumption is also expected to grow to a record level in the new season – 803.5 million tons (+8.1 million tons).
The forecast of world grain stocks at the end of 2026 has been raised by 9.6 million tons (+3.7%), to 898.7 million tons. This is also a record for the beginning of the season.
Improvement of FAO grain production forecast is usually perceived by the world market as a factor having a downward impact on stock exchange quotations.
