The growth of this CPIF index continues for the second month in a row. Prices for all groups of goods – cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar – increased to a greater or lesser extent, which was due to both market conditions and the reaction to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
If we compare with the indicators of previous periods, the value of CPIF was 1.0% higher than the corresponding indicator of the previous year, but as much as 19.8%) below the peak level recorded in March 2022, noted in the FAO monthly report.
Average value of the grain price index
In March, the CPI for cereals amounted to 110.4 points, which is 1.7 points (1.5%) higher than in February and 0.7 points (0.6%) above the level of last year. The growth is explained by the increase in exchange quotations of all major cereals, except for rice.
Thus, global wheat prices rose by 4.3% due to deteriorating estimates of the state of the U.S. harvest amid concerns about drought. Also influential was the forecast of reduction of sown areas in Australia – due to the expected increase in fertilizer prices, provoked by logistical problems in the Middle East.
These drivers of higher global grain prices were partly offset by a significant pressure on prices – favorable crop conditions in Europe and intense competition between exporters who still have significant grain resources to sell in the short term.
The growth of world prices for corn amounted to only 0.9%, it was limited by the still significant supply of this commodity on world markets. This factor was only partially diluted by farmers’ concerns about the economic availability of fertilizers ahead of the planting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere. Demand for ethanol (a product of corn processing) is also expected to increase indirectly on the back of rising energy prices.
Last month, higher barley and sorghum prices were recorded. At the same time, the CPIF for all types of rice declined by 3.0 percent in March 2026, due to lower prices in all key market segments due to a combination of new crop arrivals, weaker import demand, and depreciation of local currencies against the U.S. dollar.
Average price index for vegetable oils
CPIF for this category of goods in March amounted to 183.1 points, exceeding the February value by 8.9 points (5.1%). Thus, the increase in this index continues for the third month in a row. The index value was 21.3 points (13.2%) higher than the corresponding level of the last year.
Continued growth is due to the increase in quotations for palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils. Global palm oil prices reached their highest level since mid-2022, surpassing soybean oil prices. This was largely due to the “carryover effect” of a spike in crude oil prices and lower forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia.
Global soybean oil prices rose modestly as expected stronger demand from the US biofuels sector was partially offset by a seasonal increase in exports from South America.
At the same time, global sunflower and rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to further supply reduction in the Black Sea region and expected increase in demand for rapeseed and sunflower against the background of high global energy prices.
Average value of the meat price index
In March, the CPI Meat Price Index averaged 127.7 points, up 1.2 points (1.0%) from February and 9.4 points (8.0%) from a year ago.
The growth of the index was caused primarily by the rise in the price of pork, as well as a moderate increase in quotations for beef. At the same time, prices for mutton and poultry meat slightly decreased.
Pork prices rose sharply due to higher pork prices in the European Union as seasonal demand was expected to pick up. Global beef prices also showed growth, largely driven by developments in Brazil, where a reduction in cattle numbers limited export supply in the face of robust global demand. However, the impact of this factor was partially offset by stable prices in Australia with high levels of supply.
In contrast, lamb prices declined due to increased exports from New Zealand. This was despite the imposition of higher tariffs in the US and logistical constraints hampering access to Middle Eastern markets.
Global poultry prices declined marginally as prices in Brazil weakened on strong supply and stable import demand, with shipments to key importing countries in the Middle East diverted through the Red Sea.
Average dairy price index value
CPI index for this category of goods in March was 120.9 points, up 1.5 points (1.2%) from the previous month, but still 27.8 points (18.7%) below year-ago levels.
Thus, for the first time since July 2025, the value of this indicator increased, primarily as a result of higher quotations for skimmed milk powder (SMP), butter and whole milk powder (WMP). Whereas the decline in global cheese prices restrained the cumulative increase. Prices for COM and SCM retained the upward dynamics observed since January, which was due to active global import demand and seasonal reduction in milk supply.
World prices for butter also slightly strengthened.
At the same time, prices for cheese in the European Union continued to decline. Increase in milk supply, growth in cheese production and sluggish export demand contributed to the weakening of quotations.
Average sugar price index
In March, the CPIF amounted to 92.4 points, which is 6.2 points (7.2%) higher than in February. Moreover, the sugar price index reached its highest level since November 2025, but it is still 24.5 points (21.0%) lower than last year.
The increase recorded in March was mainly due to higher global crude oil prices. As a result, expectations have increased that Brazil (the world’s largest sugar exporter) will increase its use of ethanol (from sugarcane) in the upcoming harvest season.
Concerns about how escalating conflict in the Middle East could affect sugar trade also contributed to higher prices. Nevertheless, the overall increase in world sugar prices was tempered by a generally favorable global supply outlook for the 2025/26 season, supported by a good pace of harvesting in India and Thailand.
