According to estimates, in 2026, the state budget deficit will amount to approximately 21 billion lei, which is 5.5 percent of GDP. The government’s medium-term financing needs are planned to be covered by net financing from external and internal sources in the proportion of 2.5% of GDP each, taking into account actual allocations for the fulfillment of external and internal state guarantees.
The law on the state budget for 2026 plans payments from external state loans in the amount of 17,259.6 million lei. Of this amount, MDL 5,893.2 million (equivalent to $335.0 million) is intended for the implementation of projects financed from external sources, while payments from external sources in the amount of MDL 11,366.4 million (equivalent to $646.2 million) are planned to support the state budget. In other words, external loans will provide current liquidity.
At the same time, the inflow of external state loans will be mainly in euros. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, the main creditor of the government in 2026 will be the European Union, which will account for 36.6% of the total volume of external loans. It is followed by the World Bank (29.4%) and the French Development Agency (11.8%). Also, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will have a share of 11.2%, the European Investment Bank – 8.2%. The other creditors together will account for 2.9% of the total volume
External loans, which the government hopes to receive in 2026 from international organizations, will have a maturity of at least 15 years. Priority will be given to multilateral creditors. Out of the total volume of external loans, the government intends to use 5,893.2 million lei for the implementation of new and ongoing projects in various economic sectors, including agriculture, road construction, energy, education, healthcare and environmental protection.
Almost the same amount is envisaged for maintenance. During 2026, the repayment of external state loans is estimated at 4,254.5 million lei (equivalent to $241.9 million).
As a result, it is estimated that as of December 31, 2026, the balance of external public debt will not exceed MDL 92,966.6 million (equivalent to $5,211.1 million), representing 24.6 percent of GDP.
However, the sustainability of external borrowing depends on economic growth and the efficiency of liability management. Long-term risks, according to experts, lie in the priorities of channeling financial flows from external markets. Active external borrowing provides foreign exchange earnings and deficit financing, but increases the burden on the budget, which is obliged to cope primarily with debt servicing. The implementation of projects may remain in question.
The government may face many problems and constraints: the cost of financing, investors’ appetites, low efficiency of public procurement. Currency risks are not excluded: exchange rate fluctuations may lead to an increase in the cost of servicing the external public debt. And the risks of synchronizing the schedule of payments with the state budget’s financing needs in case of delays in external borrowing are quite high.
