According to preliminary data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of the population with permanent residence in Moldova as of January 1, 2025 was about 2.4 million people, which is 42 thousand less (or 1.7%) compared to the beginning of the previous year. Compared to 2019, the population of the country decreased by more than 260 thousand people by 2025, and if compared to 2016 – by about 450 thousand people. There are opinions that the actual reduction is even greater.
In 2024, the country’s population decreases by 2.8%. This is one of the highest reduction values in the world – the fourth place. Leading the way are Kosovo at 9.7%, St. Maarten at 5.17% and the Marshall Islands at 3.35%. The other day more recent data appeared: the International Monetary Fund gave Moldova fifth place.
Also in 2024, Moldova registered the lowest birth rate in recent years – less than 25,000 newborns. The number of deaths continues to far exceed the number of births, the natural increase remains deeply negative.
Another trend in recent years is the steady increase in the number of Moldovan citizens who have obtained EU citizenship: from 9,111 in 2020 to 21,174 in 2023, i.e. more than doubling in three years. It should be understood that obtaining EU citizenship is usually the final stage of a long migration process and indicates the intention of permanent residence abroad.
From a demographic point of view, the Republic of Moldova is losing active human capital, especially the population of working and reproductive age. Of the 130,084 people leaving the country in 2023, 75% are the economically active population aged 15-64.
This data was presented by the chairman of the parliamentary commission for human rights and interethnic relations, Grigore Novak, at the hearings on the emigration problem.
“We are not looking for culprits – we are looking for solutions to reduce depopulation, stabilize the demographic situation, protect children and ensure their upbringing in the family, slow down the decline in the birth rate, provide adequate social protection for the elderly and reduce poverty,” Grigore Novak said.
“The situation is stable – migration is growing”
The Diaspora Liaison Office was established almost 13 years ago. However, few people really understand what it does besides organizing the annual Diaspora Festival at the end of August, which, admittedly, is usually a high-profile event. Today, the institution cannot even provide any more or less real data on the number of those who have returned home after being abroad, temporarily or permanently. The conclusion that can be drawn after listening to the head of the Office, Violina Dona, is roughly the following: migration flows continue to grow, but they are becoming more sustainable and safer. This is like the famous phrase: “the situation is stable – prices keep rising”.
“Migration flows are growing, but we identify certain preconditions that contribute to this. First of all – the strengthening of migrant networks abroad. This should be taken into account: we have much stronger associations in the diaspora, professional networks, people who help each other and can provide support mechanisms for emigration, reducing the risks and difficulties faced by the first waves of migrants. The current profile of migrants from the Republic of Moldova in destination countries points to stabilized, family and intergenerational migration, where legal integration and family reunification play a key role. For example, Moldovan citizens are among the top 10 foreigners obtaining Italian citizenship”, – these are the data provided by Donu.
The foundations of economic growth are being undermined
Labor migration and unfavorable demographic dynamics are the determinants of weak economic growth. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, the structure of the economic growth potential shows a predominant contribution of the capital factor, while the contribution of total productivity was modest and that of the “labor” factor was the lowest.
Independent expert Alexander Makhukhin points out that emigration is dangerous because it changes the functioning of the economy and the institution of the family. We have two overlapping negative demographic factors: negative migration growth and internal demographic decline.
“If we talk about countries very similar to Moldova, such as Kosovo or Albania, they do not have internal demographic decline, they have only negative migration growth. We have both factors. Therefore, it is not enough to look only at the total population – it is also important to consider how many people actually support the economic system. In 2025, the labor force is about 800,000 people, and the labor force participation rate relative to the total population is only 41%. I believe this is one of the lowest rates in the European area. In other words, with a population of more than 2.3 million people, the entire economy of the Republic of Moldova, as well as the system of guaranteeing and protecting human rights, relies on less than one million people. We are losing not only the population as such, but also the economic base on which the future of our country should be based,” the expert said.
Refugees as potential
At the same time, Alexander Makhukhin sees the presence of demographic resources – for example, such “passive” as those about 200 thousand people who are not working and not looking for work.
“In addition, about 120 thousand are Ukrainian refugees, and these people are also integrated into the labor market, education and health care system of our country. Good practices of diaspora return can also be taken into account – for example, programs with positive statistical results have been implemented in Latvia, Portugal, Ireland. Of course, we cannot completely stop emigration, we cannot physically apply tough instruments like in North Korea or Turkmenistan. But we can and should be able to manage the consequences of this process,” Makhukhin said.
Agencies lack a “general chat room”
As Grigory Novak noted, the state needs to understand whether it is doing enough or whether legislative intervention is necessary. But first, it is necessary to have a clear picture of what is happening in the field of migration, including clear aggregate statistics of those leaving and returning, as well as the interaction of all the structures concerned with migration and demography. Today, the measures of different institutions seem useful but fragmented:
– The government is working on the development of a national return support plan. It is expected to be adopted at the end of August and to enter into force immediately.
– The International Organization for Migration, together with the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, is discussing the possibility of creating an investment fund for the diaspora.
– The National Bureau of Statistics will introduce a new methodology for calculating relative and absolute poverty based on income. It will be tested this year and will be implemented on a regular basis from 2027.
– The Ministry of Education and Research is developing a program for the implementation of “Strategy 2030” based on the results of a study on the impact of demography on education.
It is very likely that there are other plans, programs and intentions, and this once again confirms the need for streamlining, coordination of actions and measures. It is possible, for example, to create a “common interdepartmental chat room” and appoint a BSD admin…. So that the only source of data in the context of migration and demography would not remain the “Easter roll call”.
