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According to the report “Oxford Economics“ (UK), the escalation of the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran will lead to the fact that this year the countries of the Persian region will be visited by 23-38 million fewer tourists compared to the baseline forecast. The overall level of tourist flows will decrease by 11-27%, while back in December 2025 a growth of 13% was forecasted.
Long-term negative impact
Analysts note that the current conflict will become much more tangible compared to last year’s escalation of the conflict. This is caused by the closure of the airspace of a number of countries in the region (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia) due to retaliatory missile strikes by Iran.
The situation is already having a significant negative impact on tourists’ perception of the region. This trend will have a long-term character. Even the end of the active phases of the conflict will not help to improve the situation.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have the most significant volumes of tourist traffic and critical dependence on air transportation, are the most affected. The deterioration in perception is mostly due to problems in air transportation. Travelers do not perceive disruptions in land or sea connections as acutely.
Qatar and Bahrain (the island is connected to the Arabian Peninsula by the King Fahd Bridge) partially soften the blow thanks to their high share of land arrivals – 32% and 74% respectively. This allows them to reduce their dependence on air traffic.
Impact on the hub
The Gulf region is known for its significant role as a global transit hub. Local airports account for about 14% of international transit passenger traffic.
Disruptions to transit routes through airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi (both UAE) and other cities are already having a significant impact on routes from Europe to Asia Pacific and back.
Therefore, the impact of the conflict will extend beyond the region – disruptions will affect routes between Europe and Asia-Pacific, which traditionally pass through Middle Eastern hubs.
According to experts, although the current conflict has the potential to cause much more damage to the travel industry than previous ones, the Middle East and, in particular, the Gulf region have historically demonstrated high resilience to crises, with demand recovering quickly once stability is established.
