According to one version, the U.S. joined the war with Iran for this reason – against the background of the rapid growth in popularity of Dubai chocolate (which uses pistachios), Iran began to gain more significant weight in the supply of this nut, which was not tolerated in Washington.
This is a conspiracy theory, but nevertheless.
Analysts warn: disruptions in supplies from the country, which is among the largest nut producers, may lead to shortages and price increases in the coming months.
According to industry estimates, Iran is stably among the top 2 global pistachio producers, competing with the United States. The two countries account for up to 70-80% of global exports, making the market highly sensitive to any disruptions, reports Fresh Plaza.
The publication, citing market analysts, specifies that the 2025 pistachio harvest will amount to about 712,000 tons in the United States, about 135,000 tons in Turkey and about 225,000 tons in Iran (in the shell), with total global production in the region of 1.1-1.2 million tons.
Exports under ban – a market without a safety cushion
A key trigger was Tehran’s temporary ban on food exports, aimed at stabilizing the domestic market amid the war. “In case of a prolonged disruption, the global pistachio market will already suffer – here Iran is one of the key players,” industry experts note.
The problem is that the pistachio market is characterized by low supply elasticity due to several factors:
– new orchards require 5-7 years before reaching full yield;
– alternative suppliers are limited;
– traders’ stocks are relatively low.
As a result, even short-term disruptions can cause market imbalances.
Not surprisingly, against this background, pistachio prices went up sharply. Analysts predict a double-digit percentage increase in purchase prices already this year, with a possible further increase next year if the conflict drags on.
In addition, logistics costs have already risen significantly, by 2-3 times for some countries. And there is also an increase in supplies via third countries.
Who benefits – and why it is not enough
The global pistachio market is estimated at around $4-5 billion annually, but its key feature is the high concentration of production. Unlike mass crops, there is no wide geography of suppliers, which increases volatility.
Theoretically, producers from the USA, in particular California farmers, who account for the bulk of the American crop, can benefit from the situation.
However, experts emphasize that the redistribution will not be quick and painless. Current capacities in the USA are already close to full utilization and it is impossible to quickly increase production. In addition, part of the crop has already been contracted in advance, so there is not much room for maneuver.
As a result, even the U.S. is not able to fully compensate for the drop in Iranian volumes.
An additional risk factor is the disruption of the usual logistics chains. Supplies are increasingly being bypassed via Turkey, China and Central Asian countries, which increases delivery times, reduces market transparency and raises the final cost of supplies
In this sense, pistachios become another indicator of how regional conflicts can quickly transform into global economic risks – far beyond the energy sector.
