By choosing such a radical model of deliberative democracy, focused on long-term collective benefits rather than short-term political interests, Norway has set a precedent for other countries. But perhaps even more importantly, in presenting its recommendations to the Norwegian parliament on May 13, the commission formally demanded the approval of a legal framework to protect future generations, including the appointment of a special commissioner. If approved, it will be clear that grassroots activists have the power to change the paradigm of government.
I know first-hand the potential for this change, having served as the first Commissioner for Future Generations in Wales, where the Well-being of Future Generations Act was passed in 2015. This Act was the result of a year-long public consultation. In 2014, the Welsh Government asked citizens to discuss what kind of country they wanted to leave behind for their children and grandchildren. Their responses helped to formulate seven legislative long-term well-being goals, which serve as a guiding light for the authorities.
Interest in such laws is growing worldwide. In September, the UN General Assembly adopted a “Declaration on Future Generations” that calls on governments to institutionalize long-term thinking.
Norway has a chance to do so, and the consequences will be very serious. The reason is the size of that country’s sovereign oil fund – $1.8 trillion. Against a backdrop of increasing climate change and economic uncertainty, Norway must choose new approaches to financial management, helping to protect the well-being of the planet and society.
Norway, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, must first recognize its dependence on fossil fuels. Norway faces the challenge of transitioning to a post-oil economy amid a shift towards renewable energy. To reduce the costs of asset obsolescence, protect workers and ensure a just transition, the country needs careful diversification.
The Norwegian Future Generations Act, building on the Welsh model, will allow intergenerational responsibility to be factored into policy and ensures that the government seeks to balance the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of current and future generations. In this process, the Commissioner for Future Generations could play an independent expert role, flagging up measures that are contrary to the aims of the Act and requiring political leaders to seek and find a balance between short-term and long-term interests.
Many of today’s challenges illustrate the unfortunate consequences of failing to plan for the future. From climate change to demographic shifts, all of these problems, often overlapping, have resulted from short-sighted decisions and willful disregard for reliable facts and trends. For example, what happens if Norway’s aging population fails to adapt to warmer temperatures, putting even more strain on an already overburdened health care system?
The goal of long-term thinking, however, is not only to prevent problems, but also to achieve a better, more promising future. For example, the Welsh model has provided government and public institutions with a tool to see beyond political cycles. More forward-looking, the authorities have prioritized investment in public transport over road building; focused on keeping people healthy rather than just treating them; and even revived the Welsh language, once threatened with extinction.
The Norwegian Commission for the Future has spoken, and now the Norwegian government is at a crossroads. Will it become a world leader in long-term political planning, ensuring that its oil wealth benefits future generations? Or will it make decisions based solely on short-term considerations and preserve the crises that future citizens will have to contend with?
Sophie Howe,
the first Commissioner for Future Generations in Wales.
© Project Syndicate, 2025.
www.project-syndicate.org
