Yes, when the first Trump administration released its “National Security Strategy” in 2017, it too talked a lot about national sovereignty above all else. But that document still recognized the value of America’s allies, and it emphasized that “the United States and Europe will work together to counter Russian subversion and aggression.” This work was also part of a broader strategy of “great power rivalry,” in which China figured prominently.
Russia has since launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and China’s role has become even more important. But the second Trump administration bows to Russia, criticizes the Europeans, and describes the threat from China as merely economic. Apparently, great power rivalry has been replaced by great power camaraderie. America now says it is more interested in “stability,” which supposedly can be achieved by working with Russian President Vladimir Putin and within the framework of the “Big Two” (G2) with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The implication is that the great powers think alike. Each wants its own sphere of influence and values strength over principle.
As many commentators have noted, the NSS represents a radical departure from previous US policies and doctrines. It envisions a reversal back to the Western Hemisphere and signals that profit will trump principle in almost all cases. For example, the Middle East is seen primarily as a destination for investment. Politics is convoluted and commercial deals are simple.
Yet the thundering condemnation of Europe stands out, not least because of errors in the basic argument. The NSS claims that “in a couple or three decades at most, a number of NATO members will be predominantly non-European” and that a Europe doomed to “civilizational erasure” (a formulation that many believe was coined by Vice President J.D. Vance) cannot be a reliable ally. But this is simply false. There is not a single European country where “non-Europeans” will begin to constitute a majority in the foreseeable future. This is true even of the country with the largest proportion of Muslims, Russia.
All this vile rhetoric comes directly from European extremists. It is simply astounding that it will now shape America’s attitude toward its strongest and closest allies. The Trump administration is willing to interfere in the internal affairs and politics of European countries by supporting “patriotic” forces – meaning those who spread the same racist nonsense. Even Russia has not been so brazenly outspoken about its intentions to interfere in European democratic processes.
It remains to be seen what will come of all this. Getting close to Trump cannot be called an election-winning strategy, so U.S. attempts to interfere in Europe may be as unsuccessful as Russia’s. But they could do much more damage, given how much transatlantic relations have already deteriorated.
No, of course, we Europeans have plenty of problems. We urgently need to revive the spirit of enterprise, competition and global trade, strengthen our defenses and extend our successful project of integration across the continent. Managing migration is certainly a difficult task – just as it is for the United States.
However, overall we have incredibly successful societies and we must not forget that. Assassination attempts and political violence are extremely rare here. We don’t have politicized mobs storming parliaments. Our democracies remain open and vibrant; most of them top the world ‘s press freedom rankings. The incarceration rate of our citizens is one-fifth that of the United States, and our murder statistics are many times lower than America’s. We don’t have a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. Our health care systems provide better outcomes and longer lives than anywhere else, and the EU population as a whole has higher levels of education.
We are certainly not at risk of “going extinct” as the NSS absurdly claims. Few places on earth provide a better quality of life than Europe for such a large proportion of the population. Instead of trying to indulge Trump’s America, we should take firmer positions, recommit to our principles, and hope that the ideological confusion on the other side of the Atlantic soon passes. Otherwise, we will not be the ones committing civilizational suicide.
Carl Bildt,
former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden.
© Project Syndicate, 2025.
www.project-syndicate.org
